Is the government going to shut down Friday? A majority of lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are motivated not to let what would be the third shutdown this year happen.
They may not have a choice, though. We are about two days away from a midnight Friday deadline for Congress to appropriate money for a budget deal to which lawmakers agreed in February, and lawmakers still don't have a bill that would fund the government through Sept. 30, the end of the fiscal year.
That's because, as The Washington Post's Mike DeBonis and Erica Werner report, there are last-minute holdups regarding how much to fund President Trump's U.S.-Mexico border wall and whether to include gun-control provisions. Other last-minute issues could spring up, too, splitting off votes that leaders desperately need.
“The issues outstanding have large political constituencies,” Steve Bell, a former GOP budget analyst, said. “Without any immigration to really tempt Democrats, it will take some real dealing to get things done by Friday.”
Another option is that lawmakers pass another short-term spending bill, their sixth of the year, to extend the funding deadline through the weekend.
“It could happen,” Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) told Werner of the possibility of a shutdown or extending the deadline a few days.
If another government shutdown happens, here's how things will probably go:
House conservatives revolt
There's not a lot in this bill for conservatives to like. It boosts federal spending on domestic programs — a big Democratic get — and funds the Internal Revenue Service to help the agency enact Republicans' new tax bill.
Expect 20 to 30 House conservatives to vote against the measure on the principle that it raises spending too much.
“I have not heard anything from any of my colleagues that would give me a whole lot of hope that there will be conservative wins,” said House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) told my colleagues earlier this week.
That means House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) will have to rely on House Democrats to make up the difference and vote to fund the government. (The latest is that the House vote will happen sometime Thursday, about 36 hours before the government could shut down.)
Democrats revolt on immigration, gun control or Russia
Another must-pass spending bill, another moment where Democrats find themselves with a sizable amount of leverage. And because this is likely to be the last must-pass piece of legislation before the November midterm elections (yes, really), Democrats are digging in on a few campaign issues.
Some of their demands:
- President Trump can have $1.6 billion for his border wall but not hundreds of new immigration agents to patrol the border.
- Actually, they want most of that money to go toward repairing existing barriers and not for concrete barriers like the ones Trump has proposed.
- They want some kind of gun-control measure in the bill. If lawmakers have to work through the weekend, the symbolism isn't lost on Democrats that thousands of marchers advocating for gun control will convene Saturday right outside their windows for the March for Our Lives.
Some Democrats have also said they'll vote against the spending bill unless it prevents Trump from firing special counsel Robert S. Mueller III. But that idea doesn't seem to be picking up any momentum.
Most of these negotiations are likely to be solved behind closed doors, before a spending bill comes for a vote. That's because Republican leaders don't want to put a bill on the floor and then suffer an embarrassing, potentially avoidable loss.
But the closed-door haggling may not be done by Friday at midnight, said Brookings Institution congressional analyst Molly Reynolds, and that would force leaders to pass another short-term measure.
Still, never rule out the possibility that a number of House Democrats vote against the spending bill because it doesn't protect young undocumented immigrants known as “dreamers” from deportation. (A deal on that is looking less and less likely.)
One or two senators revolt over niche issues
Although most of us were sleeping on the night of Feb. 8, the government shut down for a few hours after Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) seized the Senate floor, trying to force senators to vote on an amendment that basically says they failed to rein in federal spending when they passed their tax bill.
Paul isn't ruling out doing something like that again. He's the likeliest candidate to hold up this spending package, but there are others.
One senator who's likely to be particularly upset with this deal is Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine). She traded her reluctant vote in favor of December's tax bill for a future vote to shore up Affordable Care Act subsidies. Except Republican leaders haven't held up their end of the bargain, and it looks as though the House will vote on a bill that lacks health-care provisions. That means Collins may have lost her chance.
Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) is frustrated by the White House's attempts to block about $900 million in federal funding for a crucial tunnel linking New York City and New Jersey, although he seems to have accepted the White House won that one.
Speaking of the White House, here's our final hurdle to a shutdown. And it's the most unpredictable of all:
Trump revolts
He's getting some money for his border wall, but it's a fraction of the $25 billion he wants. And he's probably not getting any immigration agents to patrol the border or more money for immigrant detention facilities.
The spending bill is also likely to give the FBI hundreds of millions to combat Russian hacking, which is entirely incompatible with the president's stance that people in the FBI are out to get him.
Plus, Trump has mused in the past that shutdowns could be “good,” both for the nation and for him politically.
“If a shutdown happens,” said budget analyst and Forbes columnist Stan Collender, “it will only be because Trump wants it.”
