Duke now favorite to win NCAA title; Loyola Chicago nearly 1-in-5 to reach Final Four

Duke has a 27 percent chance to win the 2018 NCAA title, highest among the Sweet 16 teams. (AP Photo/Ben McKeown)

What a weekend. The top seed in the tournament, No. 1 Virginia, became the first No. 1 seed to ever get knocked off by a No. 16 seed (UMBC). The other top seeds in the South region, No. 2 Cincinnati, No. 3 Tennessee and No. 4 Arizona, also lost. No. 1 Xavier lost in the round of 32 on Sunday night, as did No. 3 Michigan State in the Midwest region.

[Florida State upsets No. 1 Xavier, but fellow giant-slayer UMBC falls to Kansas State]

Cinderella also made her mark, as No. 11 Loyola Chicago advanced, along with another double-digit seed in No. 11 Syracuse. Both are in the Sweet 16 with chances of 19 and 4 percent, respectively, to make the Final Four. The Orange can see their Final Four chances increase greatly if they can get by No. 2 Duke, the current title favorite with a 27-percent likelihood, in the Sweet 16.

So, who’s favored to move on to the Final Four? Heading into Thursday’s Sweet 16 games the top four contenders are Duke (62 percent), Villanova (50 percent), Gonzaga (46 percent), Kentucky (38 percent).

As March Madness unfolds, we’re providing updated win probabilities for every team in the tournament. We’ll update these odds with the conclusion of every game, so you can see whether a Cinderella is going to keep dancing or is likely to be riding in the back seat of a pumpkin come the following round.

Sunday results

No. 5 West Virginia beats No. 13 Marshall

Elite Eight: 26% | Final Four: 10% | Finals: 3% | Title: 1%

The Mountaineers went on a 19-0 run in the first half giving West Virginia a 97 percent win probability, which they maxed out at 100 percent, naturally, by the game’s end. They will face No. 1 Villanova in the Sweet 16, an opponent which lowers their chance to make the Final Four from 11 to 10 percent.

No. 9 Florida State upsets No. 1 Xavier

Elite Eight: 24% | Final Four: 8% | Finals: 2% | Title: 1%

The Seminoles outscored Xavier 31-14 down the stretch with P.J. Savoy hitting a three-point shot with a little over a minute to play to give Florida State its first lead of the second half. After the win, Florida State’s chances to make the Elite Eight ballooned from 9 to 24 percent. The Seminoles will face No. 4 Gonzaga in the  next round.

No. 9 Kansas State beats No. 16 UMBC

Elite Eight: 34% | Final Four: 14% | Finals: 5% | Title: 1%

Barry Brown led Kansas State with 18 points — eight as the ballhandler during the pick-and-roll — and helped end UMBC’s reign as the ultimate bracket buster. With none of the top four seeds remaining in the South, their Final Four chances move up from 1 to 14 percent. They will face No. 5 Kentucky Thursday.

No. 5 Clemson upsets No. 4 Auburn

Elite Eight: 40% | Final Four: 11% | Finals: 4% | Title: 1%

Auburn shot just 26 percent from the field and 22 percent from three-point range, making it easy for No. 5 Clemson to move on to the Sweet 16, where they will face No. 1 Kansas. Still, the Tigers’ Final Four chances rise from 7 to 11 percent.

No. 7 Nevada upsets No. 2 Cincinnati

Elite Eight: 59% | Final Four: 29% | Finals: 13% | Title: 4%

The Bearcats looked like they had this one in the bag but then Nevada went on a 14-0 run, followed by a 7-0 run late in the game to punch its ticket to the Sweet 16 in stunning fashion. There they will meet No. 11 Loyola Chicago.

No. 7 Texas A&M upsets No. 2 North Carolina

Elite Eight: 31% | Final Four: 10% | Finals: 3% | Title: 1%

The Tar Heels were outworked from the beginning and hit just 6 of their 31 three-point attempts (19 percent), leading to an Aggies victory. Texas A&M will now face No. 3 Michigan in the Sweet 16.

No. 11 Syracuse upsets No. 3 Michigan State

Elite Eight: 13% | Final Four: 4% | Finals: 1% | Title: 0%

Coach Jim Boeheim runs the zone defense more than any other college team (94 percent of the time) and on Sunday it proved to be too much for the Spartans to handle despite Michigan State beating Syracuse on the offensive boards 29 to 7.

Syracuse’s Elite Eight chances rise slightly after the win from 9 to 13 percent, and the Orange will face No. 2 Duke in the Sweet 16.

No. 2 Purdue beats No. 10 Butler

Elite Eight: 65% | Final Four: 29% | Finals: 14% | Title: 8%

The Boilermakers needed every minute to end Butler’s Cinderella bid. Vince Edwards was solid in the low post, scoring two points and drawing two fouls on four possessions plus seven points on three possessions in isolation. Purdue’s chances to make the Elite Eight rise from 58 to 64 percent.

Saturday results

No. 3 Michigan beats No. 6 Houston

Elite Eight: 68% | Final Four: 35% | Finals: 18% | Title: 8%

Freshman Jordan Poole hit a last-second three-point shot to send the Wolverines into the Sweet 16, giving them a 50-50 chance at the Elite Eight (it was 38 percent before the game), pending the outcome of No. 2 North Carolina and No. 7 Texas A&M.

No. 4 Gonzaga beats No. 5 Ohio State

Elite Eight: 75% | Final Four: 46% | Finals: 26% | Title: 13%

[Gonzaga accepts new role as NCAA blue blood, moves on to Sweet 16]

Gonzaga got out to a quick 15-0 lead while hitting 6 of 9 shots and saw Zach Norvell Jr., a red shirt freshman, score 28 points — six three-point shots — and grab 12 rebounds.

No. 3 Texas Tech beats No. 6 Florida

Elite Eight: 35% | Final Four: 13% | Finals: 4% | Title: 2%

Texas Tech makes the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2005, when Coach Chris Beard was an assistant to the legendary Bobby Knight. Florida, meanwhile, falls short of the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2010. They will face No. 2 Purdue in the Sweet 16.

No. 1 Kansas beats No. 8 Seton Hall

Elite Eight: 59% | Final Four: 21% | Finals: 10% | Title: 5%

Kansas won, but Seton Hall’s Angel Delgado had a big night, scoring 24 points with 23 rebounds, making him only the fifth player in 40 years to have more than 20 points and rebounds in an NCAA tournament game, joining North Carolina’s Tyler Zeller (2012), Wake Forest’s Tim Duncan (1997), Maryland’s Joe Smith (1995) and Houston’s Hakeem Olajuwon (1983).

No. 11 Loyola Chicago upsets No. 3 Tennessee

Elite Eight: 40% | Final Four: 19% | Finals: 7% | Title: 1%

Sister Jean, the team chaplain for Loyola Chicago, called this upset and the Ramblers did not disappoint. Aundre Jackson had 16 points, four rebounds and an assist to help Loyola Chicago reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1985. Their chances to make the Elite Eight rise from 8 to 29 percent pending the outcome of No. 2 Cincinnati and No. 7 Nevada on Sunday.

No. 5 Kentucky beats No. 13 Buffalo

Elite Eight: 66% | Final Four: 38% | Finals: 20% | Title: 7%

Coach John Calipari saw a true team effort on Saturday with four players — P.J. Washington, Hamidou Diallo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Wenyen Gabriel — reaching double figures in getting the Wildcats to the Sweet 16. And now that UMBC knocked off Virginia, Kentucky’s chances to make the Final Four gets a little better, going from six to 32 percent.

No. 2 Duke beats No. 7 Rhode Island

Elite Eight: 86% | Final Four: 62% | Finals: 40% | Title: 27%

Atlantic Coast Conference player of the year Marvin Bagley III scored a team-high 22 points with nine rebounds and fellow freshman Wendell Carter Jr. added 13 points to help earn Duke its 26th trip to the Sweet 16. More importantly, after No. 7 Texas A&M upset No. 2 North Carolina, the Blue Devils’ championship hopes soar to 28 percent, the highest in the field behind No. 1 Villanova.

No. 1 Villanova beats No. 9 Alabama

Elite Eight: 77% | Final Four: 50% | Finals: 29% | Title: 20%

Villanova hit 17 three-point shots en route to an easy 81-58 victory over Alabama, increasing the Wildcats’ chances of making the Elite Eight from 68 to 76 percent. They have the second-best chance to win the NCAA title (26 percent).

Friday results

No. 9 Florida State beat No. 8 Missouri

Sweet 16 odds: 33% |  Elite Eight: 9% | Final Four: 2% | Finals: 1% | Title: 0%

The Seminoles took advantage of their depth — reserves Mfiondu Kabengele, Trent Forest and P.J. Savoy all scored in double digits — to defeat Missouri. Their chances to make the Sweet 16 rose from 16 to 33 percent after the win, but now they will face No. 1 Xavier on Sunday.

No. 5 Clemson beats No. 12 New Mexico St.

Sweet 16 odds: 64% |  Elite Eight: 25% | Final Four: 7% | Finals: 2% | Title: 1%

Shelton Mitchell led the Tigers in scoring (23 points) and added five assists and three rebounds. Clemson will face No. 4 Auburn in the second round.

No. 11 Syracuse upsets No. 6 TCU

Sweet 16 odds: 36% |  Elite Eight: 9% | Final Four: 2% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%

The Orange beat Arizona State in a First Four game on Wednesday and then followed it up with an upset over TCU on Saturday. They will face No. 3 Michigan State on Sunday, a team that score more than a point-per possession against the zone defense (89th percentile), a staple of Syracuse’s defensive scheme.

No. 16 UMBC upsets No. 1 Virginia

Sweet 16 odds: 0% | Elite Eight: 0% | Final Four: 0% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%

That’s not a typo. The Retrievers made history on Friday night and defeated the Cavaliers 74-54. No. 16 seeds were 0-135 all-time against No. 1 seeds leading up to tonight. And they didn’t just beat a No. 1 seed — UMBC beat the No. 1 seed in the tournament. March Madness, indeed.

The Retrievers will play No. 9 Kansas State on Sunday. I’d let you know what their chances are to move past the second round but my spreadsheet is in shock.

No. 1 Xavier beats vs. No. 16 Texas Southern

Sweet 16 odds: 71% |  Elite Eight: 30% | Final Four: 13% | Finals: 5% | Title: 2%

The Musketeers romped to a victory with three players — Kareem Kanter, Trevon Bluiett and J.P. Macura — scoring at least 24 points.

No. 4 Auburn beats No. 13 College of Charleston

Sweet 16 odds: 58% |  Elite Eight: 25% | Final Four: 12% | Finals: 4% | Title: 1%

Charleston made a game of it, but Auburn held on to win its first tournament game since 2003. The Tigers will have to perform better than 47 percent from the free throw line if they are to make it through to the Sweet 16 and beyond. Their chances did increase from 50 to 58 percent with the win.

No. 3 Michigan State beats No. 14 Bucknell

Sweet 16 odds: 75% |  Elite Eight: 55% | Final Four: 31% | Finals: 16% | Title: 8%

Miles Bridges had 26 points, nine rebounds and four assists in the Spartans first-round victory. Already one of the stronger teams in the tournament, their chances to make the Final Four rise from 29 to 31 percent. They play Syracuse in the second round.

No. 9 Kansas State beats No. 8 Creighton

Sweet 16 odds: 89% |  Elite Eight: 29% | Final Four: 5% | Finals: 1% | Title: 0%

Slight upset by the Wildcats, who outshot the Bluejays 47 to 27 percent from behind the three-point line. They also dodged No. 1 Virginia in the second round thanks to the historic upset by UMBC, and now have an 89 percent chance to make the Sweet 16.

No. 7 Nevada beats No. 10 Texas

Sweet 16 odds: 24% |  Elite Eight: 9% | Final Four: 6% | Finals: 2% | Title: 0%

Nevada came back from a 14-point deficit to win in overtime, making all six of its shots for 19 points in the extra period. The Wolf Pack’s chance of making the Sweet 16 go up slightly from 21 to 24 percent with No. 2 Cincinnati waiting for them on Sunday.

No. 5 West Virginia beats vs. No. 12 Murray State

Sweet 16 odds: 88% |  Elite Eight: 21% | Final Four: 9% | Finals: 4% | Title: 1%

The Mountaineers came into the big dance creating turnovers on 23 percent of their defensive possessions, the second-most in the nation, and forced Murray State into 16 of them in their first round matchup. Now West Virginia has a 21 percent chance of making the Elite Eight — it was 12 percent before this game — and faces No. 13 Marshall in Round 2.

No. 2 Cincinnati beat No. 15 Georgia St.

Sweet 16 odds: 78% |  Elite Eight: 57% | Final Four: 31% | Finals: 17% | Title: 9%

No. 10 Butler upset No. 7 Arkansas

Sweet 16 odds: 24% |  Elite Eight: 10% | Final Four: 2% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%

The Bulldogs win shouldn’t be a surprise — we highlighted dangerous No. 10 seeds before the tournament began and listed Butler as the most-likely upset according to DAViD, the Data-Assisted Victory Detector. As a result, their chances to make the Sweet 16 move up from 17 to 24 percent, with a matchup against No. 3 Purdue awaiting them in the second round.

No. 2 North Carolina beat No. 15 Lipscomb

Sweet 16 odds: 74% |  Elite Eight: 42% | Final Four: 25% | Finals: 13% | Title: 6%

Coach Roy Williams is now 28-0 in the round of 64, the most wins in the tournament without a loss. They will face No. 7 Texas A&M on Sunday.

No. 13 Marshall upsets No. 4 Wichita State

Sweet 16 odds: 10% |  Elite Eight: 1% | Final Four: 0% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%

Friday’s first upset comes as a shocker, giving the Thundering Herd their first ever first-round win in the tournament. Coach Dan D’Antoni made the most of his NBA-style offense, using three-point shots (39 percent against Wichita State) and layups to defeat the Shockers.

Marshall chances to make the Sweet 16 drop three percentage points at the prospect of facing No. 5 West Virginia in the next round.

No. 2 Purdue beats No. 15 Cal State Fullerton

Sweet 16 odds: 75% |  Elite Eight: 49% | Final Four: 25% | Finals: 14% | Title: 7%

The Boilermakers cruised in this one, never giving the Titans higher than a seven percent chance to win, per ESPN’s win probability chart. Purdue’s Final Four and title hopes get a bump of a percentage point thanks to No. 13 Marshall’s upset over No. 4 Wichita State. Next round they face No. 10 Butler.

[Purdue’s 7-foot-2 center Isaac Haas fractures elbow, will miss remainder of NCAA tournament]

No. 7 Texas A&M beats No. 10 Providence

Sweet 16 odds: 25% |  Elite Eight: 8% | Final Four: 2% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%

The Aggies started the game 0 for 10 from the floor with four turnovers and didn’t make a shot from the floor until there was 12 minutes and 43 seconds left on the clock in the first half, but Texas A&M prevailed over Providence to move on to the round of 32. With No. 2 North Carolina lurking in the next round, Texas A&M’s chances to advance beyond that remain unchanged.

Thursday results

No. 6 Florida beats No. 11 St. Bonaventure

Sweet 16 odds: 39% | Elite Eight: 12% | Final Four: 2% | Finals: 1% | Title: 0%

The Bonnies’ hot hand — they ranked 26th in the country in three-point shooting (39 percent) — went cold against Florida (3 for 19), giving the Gators a 38 percent chance of making their sixth Sweet 16 appearance in eight seasons — five percentage points higher than it was before the victory. All that stands in their way is No. 3 seed Texas Tech.

No. 3 Michigan beats No. 14 Montana

Sweet 16 odds: 56% | Elite Eight: 37% | Final Four: 17% | Finals: 7% | Title: 3%

Montana opened up a 10-0 lead but couldn’t keep their foot on the pedal, going nearly 10 minutes without scoring a point later in the game. The Wolverines, however, didn’t put up much of a fight — Charles Matthews had a team-high 20 points and Michigan shot just 46 percent for the field. It will have to do better if they are going to make it past No. 6 seed Houston.

No. 9 Alabama beats No. 8 Virginia Tech

Sweet 16 odds: 11% | Elite Eight: 3% | Final Four: 0% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%

Technically an upset, the Crimson Tide beat the Hokies, 86-83, giving Alabama its first win in the tournament since 2004. Colin Sexton scored 25 points with six assists and three rebounds while John Petty came off the bench to hit six of eight from behind the three-point arc. Now the Crimson Tide will face No. 1 Villanova.

No. 13 Buffalo upsets No. 4 Arizona

Sweet 16 odds: 24% | Elite Eight: 7% | Final Four: 1% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%

This is a bracket buster. According to ESPN, 18 percent of brackets had Arizona in the Final Four, yet it is Buffalo, 0-3 all-time in the tournament heading into Thursday’s matchup, that moves on. The Bulls had a seven percent chance of making the Sweet 16 before the win, now those odds have risen to 21 percent. All they have to do is beat No. 5 Kentucky on Saturday.

No. 6 Houston beats No. 11 San Diego State

Sweet 16 odds: 40% | Elite Eight: 15% | Final Four: 6% | Finals: 2% | Title: 1%

Houston, competing in the tournament for the first time since 2010, earned its first tournament win since 1984 after squeaking by San Diego State, 67-65. Senior Rob Gray scored most of Houston’s points, 39, in addition to grabbing eight rebounds. The Cougars had a 50/50 chance of making the Sweet 16 but that dropped to 40 percent after No. 3 Michigan beat No. 14 Montana.

No. 3 Texas Tech beats No. 14 Stephen F. Austin

Sweet 16 odds: 58% | Elite Eight: 34% | Final Four: 13% | Finals: 5% | Title: 2%

The Lumberjacks were seeded No. 14 when they pulled off an upset against West Virginia in the first round in 2016, but this time they fell 70-60 to Texas Tech, sending the Red Raiders to the second round for the first time since 2005. Texas Tech’s chances of making the Elite Eight remains the same with No. 6 Florida up next in Round 2.

[Stephen F. Austin coach says his college basketball team has too many millennials]

No. 5 Kentucky beats No. 12 Davidson

Sweet 16 odds: 80% | Elite Eight: 14% | Final Four: 6% | Finals: 2% | Title: 1%

Kentucky went 0 for 6 from behind the three-point line but was still able to defeat Davidson, which is now 0 for 4 in the tournament since a 2008 run to the Elite Eight behind the hot hand of Stephen Curry.

Kentucky, meanwhile, sees its chance to make the Sweet 16 rise from 38 to 80 percent after No. 16 UMBC upset No. 1 Virginia in the South Region.

No. 1 Villanova beats No. 16 Radford

Sweet 16 odds: 92% | Elite Eight: 68% | Final Four: 48% | Finals: 32% | Title: 20%

The Highlanders had little chance in this one. According to ESPN, Radford’s win probability reached a high point of 2.5 percent — and that was less than two minutes into the first half. Now Villanova’s tournament outlook rise, in part due to Marshall’s upset over Wichita State, and its title chances remain the second-highest in the field. They will face No. 9 Alabama on Saturday.

No. 8 Seton Hall beats No. 9 North Carolina St.

Sweet 16 odds: 31% | Elite Eight: 11% | Final Four: 2% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%

Seton Hall scored a season-high 94 points to move on to the next round, where their Sweet Sixteen chances improve slightly from 27 to 31 percent.

North Carolina State’s Omer Yurtseven, a 7-foot sophomore, was supposed to be able to slow down Seton Hall’s starting center Angel Delgado, but Delgado had 13 points, nine rebounds and four assists while Yurtseven fouled out with two points and two rebounds. Now it will be up to No. 1 Kansas, the Hall’s second-round opponent, and Mitch Lightfoot to protect the middle.

No. 5 Ohio State beats No. 12 South Dakota State

Sweet 16 odds: 37% | Elite Eight: 16% | Final Four: 6% | Finals: 2% | Title: 1%

The Buckeyes needed to take a season-high 40 three-point shots to move on to the round-of-32, where they will face No. 4 Gonzaga, a strong opponent that drops Ohio State’s chances at a Sweet 16 berth from 40 to 36 percent.

No. 11 Loyola Chicago upsets No. 6 Miami Fla. 

Sweet 16 odds: 28% | Elite Eight: 8% | Final Four: 1% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%

The first upset of the tournament, and one we saw coming. Loyola wins its first NCAA tournament game since 1985, and has a very strong chance to reach the Sweet 16 in a potential game against Tennessee. The Ramblers double their chances of reaching the Elite Eight, getting them one step closer to being a Cinderella team.

No. 2 Duke vs. beats No. 15 Iona

Sweet 16 odds: 85% | Elite Eight: 61% | Final Four: 41% | Finals: 26% | Title: 15%

No surprise here. The Blue Devils won by 22 points behind a big game from Marvin Bagley III, whose tournament debut included 22 points and seven rebounds. Minimal changes to Duke’s tournament outlook as they get Rhode Island in the round of 32.

No. 1 Kansas beats No. 16 Penn

Sweet 16 odds: 70% | Elite Eight: 41% | Final Four: 18% | Finals: 7% | Title: 3%

This was the 1-vs.-16 matchup everyone thought could be “the one” where a 16-seed makes history, but the Jayhawks pulled out a 76-60 victory to keep the top seeds’ record unblemished in the first round.

Kansas championship hopes rise by one percentage point after the win, a minimal uptick you would expect after beating a 16, even a formidable one. Next up for the Jayhawks: No. 8 Seton Hall.

No. 4 Gonzaga beats No. 13 UNC Greensboro

Sweet 16 odds: 60% | Elite Eight: 35% | Final Four: 21% | Finals: 11% | Title: 5%

Gonzaga had to withstand a relentless barrage of shots from the paint in the second half but they pushed their tournament winning streak to 15 games, the longest of any tournament team.

The Bulldogs chances to make the Final Four remain robust, but their championship odds did not change. That could change with a win over No. 5 Ohio State in the second round.

No. 3 Tennessee beats No. 14 Wright State

Sweet 16 odds: 74% | Elite Eight: 43% | Final Four: 22% | Finals: 8% | Title: 3%

The Volunteers had no trouble with Wright State, who shot a woeful 32 percent form the field and even worse from behind the arc (18 percent). The Raiders were also out rebounded 44-32.

With the Volunteers widely expected to advance to the second round, the impact on their overall odds was minimal. They’ll get Cinderella-in-the-making Loyola Chicago on Saturday.

No. 7 Rhode Island beats No. 10 Oklahoma

Sweet 16 odds: 12% | Elite Eight: 2% | Final Four: 1% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%

No. 7 Rhode Island held off upset-minded No. 10 Oklahoma in overtime to win its second trip to the round-of-32 in two years. Two Rams, Jared Terrell and E.C. Matthews, scored in double digits while Sooners star Trae Young did all he could in a losing effort: 26 points, seven assists and five rebounds on 8-for 17 shooting, 3-for-9 from three-point range.

Rhode Island will meet Duke in the second round.

***

The chart below shows the chances to advance for every team in the tournament as of the start of the day. And if you want a reminder on which games are most likely to produce an upset in Round 1, you can find that here.