Last week’s special election in the 18th Congressional District to replace former U.S. Rep. Tim Murphy had election analysts from across the country watching closely, and for good reason.
Republican Rick Saccone, a longtime state House member who proudly bragged of his unwavering support for President Donald Trump, had the obvious advantage of campaigning in a district that Trump carried by nearly 20 percentage points in 2016. The president visited twice, including just a few days before the election, to lend his support and also sent Vice President Mike Pence, presidential adviser Kellyanne Conway, his daughter and senior aide Ivanka Trump, and son Donald Jr. to stump for the Saccone campaign.
Even more important was the money that rolled in — nearly $15 million — from Republican special-interest groups who unleashed a seemingly endless array of attack ads on Democratic opponent Conor Lamb. They accused him of being in lockstep with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, being soft on crime as a federal prosecutor and someone who couldn’t be trusted with America’s future.
Lamb, for his part, chose to run a campaign that painted himself as a moderate, someone who supported the working class and union members, and who wanted to work toward common ground rather than drawing distinct battle lines between the political parties.
Lamb’s strategy appears to have worked, leading to one of the closest congressional elections in recent memory. As of Friday, Lamb had a lead of just under 600 votes as the campaigns waited for the results to be certified by election officials in Allegheny, Washington, Westmoreland and Greene counties.
Democrats are claiming victory in the race, but Saccone and the Republicans aren’t conceding yet, hinting that a recount is likely.
Regardless of how the election results are finalized, it’s clear that many who voted for Trump in 2016 are not going to simply back his candidates in the upcoming midterm elections without doing a little soul searching. Whether that’s a signal that many Trump votes were actually anti-Hillary Clinton votes, or whether many are tiring of the Trump style as president, remains to be seen. What is clear is that Lamb’s victory has given Democrats a renewed energy heading into the upcoming election season.
Lamb may also have provided a blueprint for combating the Trump and Republican campaign attacks: Stay calm, avoid the name-calling and try to assure voters rather than challenge them. He stuck with priorities that resonated with voters, such as protecting Social Security and Medicare and improving the area’s infrastructure.
The ultimate irony in this highly publicized and deeply analyzed race is that both candidates may resurface in new congressional campaigns in different districts.
Lamb lives in Mount Lebanon in Allegheny County, which would be part of the new 17th Congressional District that includes all of Beaver County, part of Cranberry Township in Butler County and a large portion of Allegheny County, where he did exceedingly well on Tuesday. He has already indicated he will be campaigning for the Democratic nomination in the 17th District, which could set him up for a showdown in November against incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Keith Rothfus of Sewickley.
Saccone has said he will continue his run for Congress in the new 14th Congressional District, which takes in Washington, Greene, Westmoreland and Fayette counties, all Republican strongholds.
The redistricting controversy in Pennsylvania has certainly turned this into a unique, if not bizarre, election season, and Lamb’s performance in the special election surely has Republican leaders uneasy about what lies ahead come November. What we know for sure, based on the most-recent special elections nationwide, is that support from President Trump seems to be more of a hindrance than an advantage.