Every quarterback drafted at No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 in the last 10 years has played a lot, in many cases all year. A quick story about each of those QBs provides the Browns with much food for thought as they prepare to go on the clock at No. 1 and No. 4.
One rule of thumb for quarterbacks who are good enough to be drafted at No. 4 overall is that they won't be available there.
That's something the Browns keep in mind as they decide whether to get cute with their No. 1 overall pick while imagining a QB they want will still be there are back on the clock at No. 4.
In the last 10 drafts, 12 quarterbacks have been plucked at No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3. The tally at No. 4: Zero.
Standard equipment on the human body is two thumbs, right? So here's a second rule of thumb. If they're good enough to be drafted at No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3, they'll play in Year 1, and not just a little.
That's something newly arriving veteran Tyrod Taylor must keep in mind, no matter the rhetoric in the wake of his arrival in Berea.
Throw out the 2013 draft, when everybody agreed no passer was good enough to pick near the top (EJ Manuel, Geno Smith, Mike Glennon, Matt Barkley and Ryan Nassib were the first five to go). In every other year, QBs drafted in the top three were on the field quite soon. Here's the list of the high picks relative to when they got busy as rookies.
- 2017
Mitchell Trubisky (No. 2 overall, Bears) didn't take a snap while the Bears got off to a 1-3 start.
After signing veteran Mike Glennon early last March, general manager Ryan Pace declared, "Mike is our starting quarterback, and we're fired up about that."
Glennon, who was 5-13 in four years with Tampa Bay, was the Bears' starting quarterback for four games before getting benched two weeks after beating Pittsburgh.
"It was just a decision I thought needed to be made," head coach John Fox said. "We've had 10 giveaways the first four weeks, and you can't win football games that way."
After the Browns spent the No. 1 pick on Myles Garrett, the Bears traded up from No. 3 to No. 2 for the former Mentor High School slinger — a reach, many thought, including some in the organization. The price was picks at No. 3, No. 67 and No. 111.
After Trubisky went 4-8 as the starter, Fox was fired. Glennon was released, but only after banking a guaranteed $19 million.
- 2016
Jared Goff (No. 1 overall, Rams) didn't play a down through nine games behind fourth-year pro Case Keenum, who in 2015 arrived via trade and beat out Nick Foles. In January of 2016, Keenum was named opening-day starter, but the Rams, moving to Los Angeles, had set their sights on Cal star Goff.
Fearing Cleveland (due to pick at No. 2) would get Goff, the Rams traded up to No. 1, giving Tennessee 2016 picks at No. 15, No. 43, No. 45 and No. 76, along with first- and third-round picks in 2017 (the former turning into a No. 5).
Keenum was 3-1 at one point before a home loss to Taylor's Bills triggered a four-game losing streak. He got one more game before Goff got the ball.
"I guess it was going to happen at some point," Keenum said, "but I'm obviously surprised."
Goff went 0-7 with a 63.6 passer rating. The playing time and a change to head coach Sean McVay seemed to help him. In 2017, he posted a 10-5 record and a 100.5 rating.
Carson Wentz (Eagles, No. 2 overall). Late in spring practice, head coach Doug Pederson said Sam Bradford "looks unbelievable." The Eagles had traded for Bradford in 2015 (giving up Foles), and on March 1, 2016, handed Bradford a two-year extension with $26 million guaranteed.
Then Wentz came into focus. Cleveland was willing to fork over the No. 2 pick in exchange for a No. 8, a No. 77 and a No. 100 in 2016 in addition to a first-round pick in 2017 (a No. 12) and a second-rounder in 2018 (No. 64).
Bradford started the first three preseason games but was dealt to Minnesota on Sept. 3. In the opener against Cleveland eight days later, Wentz played well in a 29-10 win. He started every game for a team that went 7-9. As with Goff, playing as a rookie left him in a good place. In 2017, he went 11-2 before getting hurt and was the only QB other than Tom Brady to receive league MVP votes.
- 2015
Jameis Winston (No. 1 overall, Buccaneers). Josh McCown and Glennon were the quarterbacks during a 2-14 2014. Winston walked into a starting job in 2015.
He looked shaky in preseason Game 3 against the Browns (interception, four sacks), but head coach Lovie Smith stuck with him throughout a 5-11 year. Glennon was the top backup, but Winston played every down.
Smith was fired and replaced by Dirk Koetter in 2016. Winston's improvement showed in another preseason Game 3 against the Browns (two TDs, no sacks, 125.5 rating). He then posted a 9-7 record.
Marcus Mariota (No. 2 overall, Titans).
Tennessee went 2-14 in 2014 behind Jake Locker, Charlie Whitehurst and Zach Mettenberger. Mariota started all four 2015 preseason games, then won a 42-14 duel against Winston in the opener.
Game 2 was a 28-14 loss to Johnny Manziel and the Browns, leading to a 3-13 year (head coach Ken Whisenhunt was fired after seven games). Mariota went 8-7 in his second year and 9-6 in his third, including a playoff win at Kansas City. In 2018, he will be on his third head coach, Mike Vrabel.
- 2014
Blake Bortles (No. 3 overall, Jaguars). Head coach Gus Bradley first went with veteran Chad Henne and stayed with him after the Jags got blown out at Philadelphia and at Washington. But after 44-17 loss to the Colts in the home opener, the Bortles era began. Bortles went 3-10 with a 69.5 passer rating as a rookie. He improved his rating to 88.2 in 2015, but his three-year record was 11-34 when Bradley got fired. Bortles got to the AFC finals under head coach Doug Marrone.
- 2012
Andrew Luck (No. 1 overall, Colts). Everyone agreed Luck was a no-brainer of a top pick. As a rookie, he started throughout an 11-5 playoff year, mostly under interim head coach Bruce Arians. Then he threw for 288 yards in the Pro Bowl.
Luck got beat up as a rookie, though. In one 11-game stretch, he took four or more sacks in five games. He has lost 26 games to injuries across the last three years.
Robert Griffin III (No. 2 overall, Redskins). The Redskins went 5-11 in 2011, mostly behind veteran Rex Grossman. Then Washington won a bidding war with Cleveland, sending the Rams picks at No. 6 and No. 39 in 2012, in addition to first-rounders in 2013 (No. 22) and 2014 (No. 2).
The trade netted Griffin at No. 2, but the Redskins also picked a QB (Kirk Cousins) in Round 4.
Griffin went 9-6 as a rookie, missing only a game at Cleveland (won by Cousins). Griffin was sacked a modest 30 times, but he ran 120 times, and though he gained 815 yards, he took too many hits.
After 2012, Griffin's record as a starter was 6-19. He hasn't found a team since the Browns released him on March 10, 2017.
OTHER RECENT EXAMPLES
- Cam Newton (No. 1 overall, Panthers, 2011). Jimmy Clausen started the preseason opener. Newton started the next week and never gave up the job.
- Sam Bradford (No. 1 overall, Rams, 2010). A.J. Feeley started preseason Game 2 in a rainstorm at Cleveland. Bradford started the next week and throughout the season.
- Matthew Stafford (No. 1 overall, Lions, 2009). Veteran Daunte Culpepper and Stafford each got two starts in the preseason. Stafford started on opening day and went 2-8.
- Matt Ryan (No. 3 overall, Falcons, 2008). Veteran Joey Harrington started preseason Game 2, but Ryan got the ball in the next game and went on to post an 11-5 record.
Taylor's simple task: Become Superman.
Reach Steve at 330-580-8347 or steve.doerschuk@cantonrep.com
On Twitter: @sdoerschukREP