Who stands where in battlefield?

The fate of the no-confidence motions moved by the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the YSR Congress Party is sealed even before the Lok Sabha takes up the motion next week. The BJP has enough numbers on its own to cross the halfway mark even without the cushions of its allies — LJP (6), Akali Dal (4), RLSP (3), Apna Dal (2), JD-U (2), AINRC, JKPDP, NPP, PMK, SDF, Swabhimani Paksha (one member each in the Lok Sabha). And yet the entire drama surrounding the no-confidence exercise is one of the most important political developments ahead of the 2019 general elections. For, it will show who stands on which side of the political divide.

Take the case of the Shiv Sena. The Uddhav Thackeray-led outfit, which has 18 MPs in the Lok Sabha, has been for months  practising an opportunist politics of running with hare and hunting with hounds. The NDA’s oldest ally is part of the alliance Government both in the State and at the Centre, but still it’s more critical of the BJP than many of the Opposition parties. On the day, the TDP walked out of the NDA, the Sena came out with a stinging editorial in its mouthpiece Saamna, predicting that the BJP will lose around 110 seats in the next general elections.

Uddhav Thackeray is likely to hold a meeting with the party MPs and senior leaders to take a call on his party’s stand on no-confidence motion. Thackeray will have to also decide if his party can afford to stay out of power in Maharashtra. For, if the Sena backed the no-confidence motion, it will also have no option but to walk out of the Devendra Fadnavis Government in Maharashtra.

Maharashtra BJP chief Raosaheb Danve asserted that the Shiv Sena will remain with its oldest ally even though Uddhav Thackeray has announced that the party will fight the upcoming Lok Sabha and State Assembly polls alone.

“We were in an alliance for 25 years. Barring the last election, we have always been together,” Danve said.

On its part, the Sena dropped subtle hints that the time may not yet have come to do a TDP on the NDA. When asked why the Sena was not pulling out of the NDA like the TDP, senior Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut told reporters in Mumbai that the comparison was unfair. “TDP’s decision is more about the local politics and it has come out of its competition with the YSR Congress. The Shiv Sena will take its decision at appropriate time,” he said.

Raut also dispelled all doubts about any possible a rapprochement between the Sena and the BJP. “We have taken a decision, so asking again and again if we will be with the BJP is useless. Our fight is with the BJP, not with the Congress or the NCP. Even the BJP acknowledges this,” he said.The BJP is trying to create disillusionment among the Sena workers by averring that the Sena will eventually form alliance with it in 2019, Raut alleged.

 “However, our policy for the last 50 years is that we do not make a U-turn. (Sena founder) Balasaheb Thackeray never went back once he took a decision, and so is the case with Uddhav Thackeray,” the Rajya Sabha member said.

Similarly, the AIADMK with its 37 MPs is under pressure to come out of its ambivalence and decide its stand vis-a-vis NDA. The AIADMK could support the NDA if the Modi Government were to concede its demand to set up a Cauvery Management Board (CMB). The condition looks simple enough, but if the BJP were to agree to the proposition, it could face backlash in the poll-bound Karnataka. Still, the way AIADMK MPs created disturbance in the Lok sabha on Friday to prevent the no-confidence motion from being taken up, showed that they are ready to play ball with the BJP.

Then comes, Naveen Patnaik and his 20 MPs. Patnaik shares a great relation with Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and may be pursued to oppose the no-confidence motion. The BJP and BJD have come closer during the last few months, especially after Nitish dumped Lalu Prasad and joined the NDA. The BJD had backed the NDA in the Presidential poll. On most of the issue it also went with the BJP in Parliament. The Opposition has stopped counting on Naveen Patnaik so much so that Sonia Gandhi did not even invite the BJD for the dinner she hosted for Opposition leaders on March 13.

Given that scenario, the NDA could count on the Naveen Patnaik to formally embrace the NDA by opposing the no-confidence motion. In return, the BJD can hope that the BJP will not make any serious effort to unseat Naveen Patnaik in the 2019 State Assembly polls.

The development in Delhi could also redraw the political equation in Andhra Pradesh. Senior TDP leaders have gone on record suggesting a tacit understanding between the BJP and the YSR Congress. Given the fact the BJP is not much of a force in the State, it could certainly look for forging an alliance with the YSR Congress ahead of the general elections.

When the dust finally settles on the politics of no-confidence motion, the battle line for the 2019 Lok Sabha poll would be clearly visible.