As March madness unfolds, we’re providing updated win probabilities for every team in the tournament. We’ll update these odds with the conclusion of every game, so you can see whether a Cinderella is going to keep dancing or is likely to be riding in the back seat of a pumpkin come the following round.
Thursday results
No. 9 Alabama beats No. 8 Virginia Tech
Sweet 16 odds: 11% | Elite Eight: 3% | Final Four: 0% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%
Technically an upset, the Crimson Tide outscored the Hokies 86 to 83, giving Alabama its first win in the tournament since 2004. Colin Sexton scored 25 points with six assists and three rebounds while John Petty came off the bench to hit six of eight from behind the three-point line. Now they will face off against No. 1 Villanova.
No. 13 Buffalo beats No. 4 Arizona
Sweet 16 odds: 24% | Elite Eight: 7% | Final Four: 1% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%
This is a bracket buster. According to ESPN, 18 percent of brackets had Arizona in the Final Four, yet it is Buffalo, 0-3 all-time in the tournament heading into this matchup, that moves on. The Bulls had a seven percent chance of making the Sweet 16 before the win, now those have risen to 21 percent. All they have to do is beat No. 5 Kentucky on Saturday.
No. 6 Houston beats No. 11 San Diego State
Sweet 16 odds: 51% | Elite Eight: 19% | Final Four: 8% | Finals: 3% | Title: 1%
Houston, competing in the tournament for the first time since 2010, earned its first tournament win since 1984 after squeaking by San Diego State 67-65. Senior Rob Gray scored most of Houston’s points, 39, in addition to hauling in eight rebounds. The Cougars now have a 50/50 chance of making the Sweet 16 but will see that drop to 40 percent if No. 3 Michigan beats No. 14 Montana.
No. 3 Texas Tech beats No. 14 Stephen F. Austin
Sweet 16 odds: 61% | Elite Eight: 35% | Final Four: 13% | Finals: 5% | Title: 2%
The Lumberjacks were seeded No. 14 when they pulled off an upset against West Virginia in the first round in 2016, but this time they fell 70-60 to Texas Tech, sending the Red Raiders to the second round for the first time since 2005. Texas Tech’s chances of making the Elite Eight improve slightly from 33 to 36 percent.
No. 5 Kentucky beats No. 12 Davidson
Sweet 16 odds: 73% | Elite Eight: 12% | Final Four: 5% | Finals: 2% | Title: 0%
Kentucky went 0 for 6 from behind the three-point line but was still able to defeat Davidson, which is now 0 for 4 in the tournament since a 2008 run to the Elite Eight behind the hot hand of Stephen Curry.
Kentucky, meanwhile, sees its chance to make the Sweet 16 rise from 38 to 73 percent after No. 13 Buffalo upset No. 4 Arizona in the South Region.
No. 1 Villanova beats No. 16 Radford
Sweet 16 odds: 83% | Elite Eight: 60% | Final Four: 39% | Finals: 25% | Title: 15%
The Highlanders had little chance in this one. According to ESPN, Radford’s win probability reached a high point of 2.5 percent — and that was less than two minutes into the first half. Now Villanova’s tournament outlook doesn’t change after beating a First Four team, but its title chances remain among the highest in the field. They will face No. 9 Alabama on Saturday.
No. 8 Seton Hall beats No. 9 North Carolina St.
Sweet 16 odds: 31% | Elite Eight: 11% | Final Four: 2% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%
Seton Hall scored a season-high 94 points to move on to the next round, where their Sweet Sixteen chances improve slightly from 27 to 31 percent.
North Carolina State’s Omer Yurtseven, a seven-foot tall sophomore, was supposed to be able to slow down Seton Hall’s starting center Angel Delgado, but Delgado had 13 points, nine rebounds and four assists while Yurtseven fouled out with two points and two rebounds. Now it will be up to No. 1 Kansas, the Hall’s second-round opponent, and Mitch Lightfoot to protect the middle.
No. 5 Ohio State beats No. 12 South Dakota State
Sweet 16 odds: 36% | Elite Eight: 15% | Final Four: 6% | Finals: 2% | Title: 1%
The Buckeyes needed to take a season-high 40 three-point shots to move on to the round-of-32, where they will face No. 4 Gonzaga, a strong opponent that drops Ohio State’s chances at a Sweet 16 berth from 40 to 36 percent.
No. 11 Loyola Chicago beats No. 6 Miami Fla.
Sweet 16 odds: 27% | Elite Eight: 7% | Final Four: 1% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%
The first upset of the tournament, and one we saw coming. Loyola wins its first NCAA tournament game since 1985, and has a very strong chance to reach the Sweet 16 in a potential game against Tennessee. The Ramblers double their chances of reaching the Elite Eight, getting them one step closer to being a Cinderella team.
No. 2 Duke vs. beats No. 15 Iona
Sweet 16 odds: 82% | Elite Eight: 57% | Final Four: 41% | Finals: 24% | Title: 15%
No surprise here. The Blue Devils won by 22 points behind a big game from Marvin Bagley III, whose tournament debut included 22 points and seven rebounds. Minimal changes to Duke’s tournament outlook as they get Rhode Island in the round of 32.
No. 1 Kansas beats No. 16 Penn
Sweet 16 odds: 64% | Elite Eight: 35% | Final Four: 16% | Finals: 7% | Title: 3%
This was the 1-vs.-16 matchup everyone thought could be “the one” where a 16-seed makes history, but the Jayhawks pulled out a 76-60 victory to keep the top seeds’ record unblemished in the first round.
Kansas championship hopes rise by one percentage point after the win, a minimal uptick you would expect after beating a 16, even a formidable one. Next up for the Jayhawks: No. 8 Seton Hall.
No. 4 Gonzaga beats No. 13 UNC Greensboro
Sweet 16 odds: 58% | Elite Eight: 34% | Final Four: 20% | Finals: 10% | Title: 4%
Gonzaga had to withstand a relentless barrage of shots from the paint in the second half but they pushed their tournament winning streak to 15 games, the longest of any tournament team.
The Bulldogs chances to make the Final Four remain robust, but their championship odds did not change. That could change with a win over No. 5 Ohio State in the second round.
No. 3 Tennessee beats No. 14 Wright State
Sweet 16 odds: 67% | Elite Eight: 38% | Final Four: 15% | Finals: 6% | Title: 2%
The Volunteers had no trouble with Wright State, who shot a woeful 32 percent form the field and even worse from behind the arc (18 percent). The Raiders were also out rebounded 44-32.
With the Volunteers widely expected to advance to the second round, the impact on their overall odds was minimal. They’ll get Cinderella-in-the-making Loyola Chicago on Saturday.
No. 7 Rhode Island beats No. 10 Oklahoma
Sweet 16 odds: 12% | Elite Eight: 2% | Final Four: 1% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%
No. 7 Rhode Island held off upset-minded No. 10 Oklahoma in overtime to win its second trip to the round-of-32 in two years. Two Rams, Jared Terrell and E.C. Matthews, scored in double digits while Sooners star Trae Young did all he could in a losing effort: 26 points, seven assists and five rebounds on 8-for 17 shooting, 3-for-9 from three-point range.
Rhode Island will meet Duke in the second round.
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[Best ATS bets for all first-round games in the NCAA tournament]
The chart below shows the chances to advance for every team in the tournament as of the start of the day. And if you want a reminder on which games are most likely to produce an upset in Round 1, you can find that here.
Read more on the tournament:
Forget Kentucky and Arizona, Virginia has easiest road to the Final Four
Five Cinderellas who can reach the Sweet 16, including a No. 16 seed
The most vulnerable top seeds in the NCAA tournament
The three best bets to win the 2018 NCAA tournament
Kansas, Xavier make No. 1 seeds the weakest since 2002. Will upsets follow?
