Analysis: BJP may find it difficult to repeat 2014 performance in 7 states in 2019 polls

NEW DELHI: ‘Mission 2019’ may prove difficult for the BJP in the very states that were at the forefront of its success in 2014.

The seven states of Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are significant in the country’s politics as they make up 273 of the total 543 Lok Sabha seats in the country. In other words, these states represent 36 per cent of the seats.

In fact, of the 282 seats the BJP won, 196 came from these seven states. Its allies, too, won 44 seats in these states.

However, new social equations are throwing up a challenge for the BJP, even as some of its own allies turn into contenders.


Challenges in the BJP's bastion
Uttar Pradesh has 80 Lok Sabha seats, of which the BJP won 71 and ally Apna Dal won two in 2014.

But now, with the coming together of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), social equations in the state are bound to change.

This was evident in the recent bypolls in Gorakhpur and Phulpur.

Both the SP and BSP have strong vote banks, but most importantly, their votes get transferred to each other.

The BJP’s biggest weapon in the state – the most backward communities – can be seen slowly aligning with this new alliance. In the byelection, the SP nominated ‘most backward’ candidates for both seats.


In Maharashtra, old allies may cause anxiety
Maharashtra is the largest state in India after UP and has 48 seats. In the last general election, the BJP won 23 seats and ally Shiv Sena won 18.

But the now-uneasy relationship between the two parties could have repercussions for the BJP.


The need for social engineering in Bihar
Bihar has 40 Lok Sabha seats, of which the BJP won 22 and its two allies won nine.

The RJD and Congress allied together to fight the election, while the JD(U) contested independently.

Though the JD(U) is now allied with the BJP, the latter can be expected to face troubles in the state due to two main reasons.

First, Lalu Prasad is focussing on the ‘Maha Dalit’ and extremely backward communities, along with his party’s traditional Muslim+Yadav votebank. This is evident in the alliance with Jitan Ram Manjhi.

In fact, new social equations played a big role in the RJD’s win in the recent bypolls.

The other issue the BJP may face is from ally Upendra Kushwaha, who is influential among the extremely backward classes.

It is looking increasingly unlikely that he will fight the Lok Sabha election with the BJP.


Youth leaders change equations in Gujarat
Gujarat is considered the BJP’s bastion.

Narendra Modi and Amit Shah’s home state gave 26 out of 26 seats in favour of the BJP in the last Lok Sabha election.

But this time, the emergence of a trio of youth leaders - Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani - has messed up the BJP’s calculations in the state.

This was obvious in the last Vidhan Sabha election, when the BJP won by the skin of its teeth.


The search for new allies in Andhra
Andhra Pradesh has 25 seats in the Lok Sabha.

Earlier, the BJP and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) fought together, with the BJP winning two seats and the TDP winning 15.

But since the relationship between the partners soured, the BJP is on the look-out for a new ally.

The TDP, on the other hand, is looking to form a new alliance.


Congress gains in strength
The BJP won 27 of the 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh, and all 25 seats in Rajasthan.

But its main rival in the two states – Congress - has gained ground, clearly witnessed by its recent victories in bypolls.


Worrisome trends
These recent trends are causing the BJP anxiety.

In fact, after the defeat in UP, its chief minister admitted that the sudden alliance of the SP-BSP was the reason for the BJP’s loss.

The party will now have to come up with a new strategy to tackle the challenge of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

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