As March madness unfolds, we’re providing updated win probabilities for every team in the tournament. We’ll update these odds with the conclusion of every game, so you can see whether a Cinderella is going to keep dancing or is likely to be riding in the back seat of a pumpkin come the following round.
Thursday results
No. 4 Gonzaga beats No. 13 UNC Greensboro
Sweet 16 odds: 68% | Elite Eight: 41% | Final Four: 25% | Finals: 12% | Title: 5%
Gonzaga had to withstand a relentless barrage of shots from the paint in the second half but they pushed their tournament winning streak to 15 games, the longest of any tournament team.
The Bulldogs chances to make the Final Four remain robust, but their championship odds did not change.
No. 3 Tennessee beats No. 14 Wright State
Sweet 16 odds: 66% | Elite Eight: 40% | Final Four: 16% | Finals: 6% | Title: 2%
The Volunteers had no trouble with Wright State, who shot a woeful 32 percent form the field and even worse from behind the arc (18 percent). The Raiders were also out rebounded 44-32.
With the Volunteers widely expected to advance to the second round, the impact on their overall odds was minimal.
No. 7 Rhode Island beats No. 10 Oklahoma
Sweet 16 odds: 24% | Elite Eight: 5% | Final Four: 1% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%
No. 7 Rhode Island held off upset-minded No. 10 Oklahoma in overtime to win its second trip to the round-of-32 in two years. Two Rams, Jared Terrell and E.C. Matthews, scored in double digits while Sooners star Trae Young did all he could in a losing effort: 26 points, seven assists and five rebounds on 8-for 17 shooting, 3-for-9 from three-point range.
Rhode Islands chances to make the Sweet 16 double from 12 to 24 percent, pending the results from No. 2 Duke’s matchup with No. 15 Iona.
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[Best ATS bets for all first-round games in the NCAA tournament]
The chart below shows the chances to advance for every team in the tournament as of the start of the day. And if you want a reminder on which games are most likely to produce an upset in Round 1, you can find that here.
Read more on the tournament:
Forget Kentucky and Arizona, Virginia has easiest road to the Final Four
Five Cinderellas who can reach the Sweet 16, including a No. 16 seed
The most vulnerable top seeds in the NCAA tournament
The three best bets to win the 2018 NCAA tournament
Kansas, Xavier make No. 1 seeds the weakest since 2002. Will upsets follow?
