Scorching summer may hit water supply and fodder, spare rabi crop: Experts

Summers have set in and if weather predictions and current day temperatures are any indication, it is going to be an extended period of extremely dry and warm weather ahead. While this could put a strain on the supply of drinking water and on animal fodder in some parts, the sudden rise in temperatures may not take a toll on any of the big standing crop of wheat, mustard and gram (bulk of the last two have already been harvested). However, it might slow down vegetables supplies and push up prices in large cities and small towns. Since March 1, weather data shows temperatures in and around the National Capital Delhi and many other cities of North India have been hovering over 30 degrees, which is 3-7 degrees more than their historical average. With India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting more than normal temperatures over all the subdivisions during March-May, weather officials and experts say the heat will get more intense in the coming months. In fact, weathermen say there is a high possibility that the quantum of heatwaves this year may rise in comparison to previous years, particularly over the North-West and Central parts of the country. An unusually dry winter followed by a huge deficiency in pre-monsoon showers is also expected to keep the weather warm and dry. While a big disturbance predicted over the South-East Arabian Sea may develop into a cyclonic storm over the next few days, its impact is likely to be limited to coastal Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep. Up north, no major weather phenomenon is expected to develop that might offer some relief from the scorching heat. Rainfall deficiency was over 60 per cent in the winter months of January and February followed by a 30 per cent shortfall since March 1, with and north and Central India bearing the brunt. The forecast shows that going forward India might have fewer number of pre-monsoon showers which also means the period of dry days will be extended. “Generally, we expect heat waves to start in April largely over Telangana, Vidharbha, Rajasthan, Gujarat, North Interior Karnataka and isolated places of Odisha, where temperatures could top 40 degree Celsius particularly during the day,” Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist at private weather forecasting agency Skymet told Business Standard. The IMD, in its forecast last month, had said that there is a 52 per cent probability that grid point maximum temperatures in the core heat wave zone between March and May will be above normal. Core heat waves cover the states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa and Telangana and meteorological subdivisions of Marathwada, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh. “Yes, day temperatures have risen in some parts but night temperatures are still favourable which means there might not be big impact on standing wheat crop in key growing states of Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh where the crop is still green,” G P Singh, director of Karnal-based Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research said. He said in other key wheat-growing states such as Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, which are seeing a sudden rise in temperature, the crop is well into maturing state. “My expectation is overall wheat production in the country is well on course to cross the initial estimate of 96-97 million tonnes,” Singh said. The marginal drop in acreage too isn’t expected to make a big dent on output in 2018-19. But, an intense and long summer season could have serious implications on drinking water and power supply, particularly in areas where the water level in reservoirs has gone down and ground water is insufficient. Data sourced from the Central Water Commission shows that as on March 8, Sardar Sarovar Water Reservoir in Gujarat, considered the lifeline of the state, has zero water in it as compared to 19 per cent of full capacity level during the same period last year. Overall, in the 27 reservoirs in Gujarat and Maharashtra, water levels were almost 6 percentage points lower than the same period last year.

Across the country too, water levels in 91-odd reservoirs on March 8 this year were lower than the corresponding period last year. “First the southwest monsoon was deficient in some parts, then the winter rains were lower than normal, snowfall was less which is why the quantum of melt water will be lower. On top of all this, we have predictions of a warmer-than-usual summer. Clearly, we have a problem on our hands in the coming months, and if monsoons get delayed, the situation could become worse,” said Himanshu Thakkar of South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People (SANDRP). He said parts of Gujarat, Uttarakhand, most of South India, Odisha and Chhattisgarh are most vulnerable to a water crisis in the coming months due to low rainfall and dipping water tables over last several years. The government on its part held a high-level meeting with officials from Disaster Management and IMD in Hyderabad few weeks ago, to monitor and take stock of the situation particularly in 8-9 main identified cities such as Ahmedabad in Gujarat and Bhubaneshwar in Odisha, among others. City-specific action plans have been prepared and discussed with the states. They include steps such as emergency response mechanism in hospitals, pushing children wards in cold areas, setting up more drinking water kiosks. “Since last year we have strengthened our heat wave advisories and will further fine tune them with district level heat wave predictions and information, so that proper action plan can be prepared with the help of other knowledge partners,” IMD Director General K J Ramesh. Clearly, the summers can only get worse from here onwards.