The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre has upgraded to 'medium' the chances of next level of intensification of the well-marked low-pressure area over the Equatorial Indian Ocean. The system was last night located to 333 km South-South-West of Colombo, Sri Lanka, which continues to enjoy favourable environment for expected intensification into a depression.
Favourable environment
The sea waters in the Equatorial Indian Ocean, adjoining Comorin region, South Sri Lanka, and South-West Bay of Bengal continue to be warm in the 28 to 29 deg Celsius. The low vertical wind shear ensures that the storm structure would be free from the disruptive influence from sudden change in wind speed and direction as the storm tower gains height.
These would combine with the divergence on top (called the 'window' effect) which allows the storm to breathe in and out and sustain itself as it grows into a depression, and even beyond.
Sri Lanka, Maldives forecast
The system is expected to West-North-West and later North-West to concentrate into a depression over the South-East Arabian Sea around Maldives, India Met Department (IMD) said. The Maldives Meteorological Services has warned of heavy rain accompanied by thunderstorms over parts of the island as the well-marked 'low' bears near.
The Sri Lankan Met Department has said that showers or thundershowers marked by cloudy conditions would continue to hold over most parts of the island for today. Fairly strong and gust winds of speeds reaching 50 km/hr could be expected particularly over the North and North-Central provinces and in Galle, Matara, Matale and Trincomalee districts.
Fairly heavy falls of up to 10 cm are forecast at some places over Easter, North-Central, and North-Western provinces.
Heavy rain seen
Meanwhile, the IMD has forecast heavy rain at isolated places over Lakshadweep area today. Squally winds of up to 50 km/hr in speed and gusting to 60 km/hr are likely over Comorin region and along and off South Tamil Nadu and South Kerala coasts, Lakshadweep and South-East Arabian Sea.
Sea conditions will be rough to very rough over Comorin-Maldives and the adjoining seas, Lakshadweep and adjoining South-East Arabian Sea. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off South Tamil Nadu and adjoining South Kerala coasts, Equatorial Indian Ocean, Comorin-Maldives, Lakshadweep and South-East Arabian Sea.
A weather trackers of the US Climate Prediction Centre seemed to suggest a northerly track for the would-be depression off the Kerala coast towards Konkan-Goa over the next few days.