The Congress feels it can get most Dalit votes, as BSP is not contesting the bypolls. The Congress got former Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar to campaign. (Representational Image)
As Araria Lok Sabha and Jehanabad and Bhabhua Assembly segments go to bypolls on Sunday, the RJD-Congress opposition alliance will bank on Muslim-Yadav consolidation and splinter EBC and Dalit votes, while the NDA will depend on Nitish Kumar’s return and the BJP’s micro-level election management.
The RJD may have seen some erosion in its Yadav votes in the absence of party chief Lalu Prasad, but party leaders believe Tejashwi Yadav has played up the political vendetta card to consolidate its cadres to a large extent.
The key challenge for NDA will be to wrest Araria Lok Sabha seat from RJD, whose candidate Mohammed Taslimuddin defeated BJP’s sitting MP Pradeep Kumar Singh in 2014. Araria had been with NDA since 1996 Lok Sabha polls. Even though the seat has a large population of Muslims and Yadavs, NDA succeeded in polarising Hindu (minus Yadavs) votes to win it in successive elections.
The contest is mainly between the late RJD MP’s son Sarfaraz Alam, and BJP’s Pradip Singh. Jehanabad Assembly segment, an RJD seat, is also being fought on the same template of social combination. Jehanabad is dominated by OBC Yadavs but is closely followed by upper caste Bhumihars. Muslim and OBC Kurmi-Koeri votes are even.
With Manjhi joining the RJD-Congress alliance, Mushahar and Pasi votes may break away from Nitish, thanks to the state’s strict liquor laws. Manjhi had raised the issue of alleged harassment of Dalits in the name of prohibition.
Bhabhua seat, won by BJP in 2015, presents an interesting battle with Congress fielding a Kurmi candidate, Shambu Nath Patel, in an effort to split Nitish Kumar’s constituency. This is a seat where upper caste Brahmins and OBC Koeri-Kurmis have been at loggerheads in their battle of supremacy.
The Congress feels it can get most Dalit votes, as BSP is not contesting the bypolls. The Congress got former Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar to campaign.
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