The India-Bangladesh bond is dominated by domestic compulsions

When Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina visited India last April, 22 pacts were signed but a treaty on sharing the waters of Teesta river did not make much headway.

Banerjee has opposed the Teesta water­sharing agreement between the countries, fearful of implications for irrigation in her state and the panchayat polls due this year.

West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee opposed it, fearful of implications for irrigation in her state and the panchayat polls due this year.

Such domestic compulsions — both in India and Bangladesh — always played a role in bilateral relations. While New Delhi is proud to have helped create Bangladesh, many politicians there saw India with suspicion. The Indo-Bangla Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Peace was a bone of contention before it expired, with critics accusing successive governments of surrendering Bangladesh’s interests and sovereignty to India. Pro- or anti-India stance became an issue in Bangladeshi electoral politics, as it will later this year.

Bangladeshi politics is one of often bloody rivalry between two parties, the Awami League (AL) led by Hasina, the daughter of Bangladesh’s founding leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) of Khaleda Zia, the widow of former president Ziaur Rahman.

In February, Zia was jailed over a years-old corruption case. Thousands of BNP activists are in jail. Several leaders of BNP’s ally Jamaat-e-Islami were hanged in recent years. Zia’s son Tarique Rahman, living in exile in London, will lead the party in the elections. Despite its flirtation with Islamists, many in India’s political circles want BNP to fight the elections, and not repeat the mistake of boycotting it in 2014. This is the context in which bilateral ties should be examined.

Relations are at the best phase, with cooperation at the institutional level, said Smruti S Pattanaik, research fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. Farooq Sobhan, former foreign secretary and Bangladeshi ambassador to India, agreed that there was significant progress in last nine years of the Hasina government. But Sukh Deo Muni, former ambassador and South Asian affairs expert, pointed out that Bangladesh still has concerns about Teesta water sharing treaty.

The China factor

Perhaps the most significant among the pacts inked during Hasina’s visit was a $500 million line of credit for military hardware purchases, seen as an attempt to wean away Bangladesh from depending on China for its defence needs.

Beijing is strengthening its ties with Dhaka. Among other defence hardware, Bangladesh also received its first ever submarines from China. Should India worry?

“Bangladesh should also not be expected to follow India’s line blindly in relation to China,” Muni said.

Assam citizenship row

Perhaps the relationship is deeper than what money can buy. There’s culture, the common Bangla language and then there is geography. That’s where things get complicated. Much of India-Bangladesh border remains porous, leading to influx of Bangladeshis into India. Often, they are targets of India’s politics, particularly in the Northeast.

“The way identity drive is being carried out in Assam is not a very useful one in relation to Bangladesh,” Muni said, referring to the National Register of Citizens being prepared in the state.

Rohingya Crisis

Dhaka is sensitive to the possible influx of ‘illegal’ Bangladeshis over the Assam citizenship drive, even as it struggles to cope with tens of thousands of Rohingya refugees fleeing persecution from Myanmar.

“Bangladesh has been very upset on the way India initially responded to the Rohingya issue,” said Muni, though later assistance in meeting the burden assuaged some of these feelings.

Pattanaik argued that India cannot annoy Myanmar and imperil its security. “It is an irritant but India cannot choose between two friends.”

Sameer Patil, director, Centre for International Security at Gateway House, Mumbai, argued that a proactive stance by India could have come only at the cost of its relationships with Bangladesh or Myanmar.

What has been less publicised, he noted, is India’s massive assistance to Bangladesh as part of ‘Operation Insaniyat’ to deal with the surging number of refugees.

The Terrorism Battle

While there is fear of radicalisation of the Rohingyas by terror groups, the Hasina government has curbed terrorism to a large extent.

Since the July 2016 Dhaka cafe attack, security forces have done an excellent job in cracking down on the local terrorist groups by flushing out their hideouts, monitoring the radical social media propaganda and augmenting their own capabilities, Patil said.

But he is still cautious.

“While Dhaka’s security situation has improved, militants have focused on carrying out smaller attacks on a regular basis in Bangladesh’s other districts,” Patil said.

Election Games

Patil pointed out that the local political exigencies are leading the ruling AL party to cosy up to Islamist groups.

AL is possibly doing this as a way to counter anti-incumbency, and the blowback from Islamists against the crackdowns and hangings that marked her tenure.

This means the polls later this year will present India with difficult choices.

India is worried about the possibility of AL slipping down in the elections, Muni said, adding that it is in India’s interest to ensure that AL remains in power.

“But this must be done as discreetly as possible. Regime change in Maldives and Nepal have heightened India’s concerns and it is better if this is avoided in other countries like Bangladesh.”

Any overt and undue efforts in promoting a specific regime may be counterproductive in the long run, he cautioned.

Sobhan is wary of any intervention in the internal affairs of Bangladesh.

“The elections in Bangladesh is a purely domestic matter and it is not advisable for India to take sides.”

“Of crucial importance is the need for mutual respect and mutual trust,” he added.