Atiq Ahmed set to play a key role in Nagendra Patel and BJP candidate Kaushlendra Patel

Don-turned-politician and Independent candidate for Phoolpur Lok Sabha bypoll, Atiq Ahmed is set to play a key role in ensuring a close fight between BSP supported Samajwadi Party candidate Nagendra Patel and BJP candidate Kaushlendra Patel. 

The BJP which is slightly uncomfortable after the SP-BSP `alliance’, sees the candidature of Ahmed as a blessing in disguise to sail through and retaining the prestigious seat which was once hold by former Prime Minister Pandit Jawahar Lal Nehru. Local poll experts feel that Atiq would spoil the prospects of the SP-BSP alliance candidate as caste equation plays a key role in deciding the winner. 

Phoolpur is dominated by Other Bachward Caste (OBC) voters out of which Patels have the major chunk with 3 lakh voters. Both the BJP and the SP have hence fielded a Patel candidate and both would try to bag the maximum share. To stop the BJP from winning the seat, Congress has fielded a Brahmin candidate Manish Mishra and sources said that he would cut a major share of votes of his community which will ultimately hurt the BJP which is hopeful of getting Brahmin votes. The constituency has 1.5 lakh Brahmin voters.

But Atiq’s presence in the poll arena has brought smiles to the BJP brass. Atiq has hold on voters of his community and in 2004, he contested on a SP ticket and won Phulpur seat. 

The BJP said that if Atiq managed to keep his community votes intact, then it would pave an easy victory for the BJP as the division of minority votes would directly affect the SP candidate.  After Patels, Muslims comprise the second largest vote bank 2.5 lakh voters. 

The SP is largely depending on Patel and Muslim voters along with the Dalits after getting support from the BSP. Besides, the SP also has a large number of Yadavs which along with Kyastha voters total around 2.5 lakh. The constituency has more than 1 lakh dalit voters. 

Due the above caste equation, SP has been winning the seat from 1996 to 2009. In 2009, the BSP won the seat and the BJP won the seat in 2014. 

Phulpur Parliamentary seat comprises four Assembly seats – Soraon, Phaphamau, Phulpur and Allahabad West Assembly segments and all are dominated by OBC votebank mostly belonging to Kurmi, Kushwaha and Yadav voters.  

Going by the electoral history of Phulpur, the set has never been a cake walk for the BJP and it won in 2014 due to the Modi wave. 

Keshav Prasad Maurya won the seat by a huge margin but after becoming Deputy CM, he had to resign from the seat. The BJP is finding it tough as they have to face one year of anti-incumbency factor againstthe state Government as it has no major achievement to showcase except for MOUs of huge investment in the state and improvement in law and order. 

With both the SP and BSP having a record of dominating elections in Phulpur and this time they being united, the BJP’s victory will depend a lot on Atiq’s traction among Muslim voters. 

The SP candidate is hence going door to door in Muslim -dominated areas telling the public that any vote for Atiq Ahmed would ultimately ensure the victory of the BJP candidate.