Painted 'villain', BJP could have tough time in AP in case of split

HYDERABAD/AMARAVATI: The withdrawal of TDP from the Union Cabinet, though a well-calculated move by Andhra Pradesh chief minister N Chandrababu Naidu, has put the ruling party at political crossroads.


If TDP breaks its electoral alliance with BJP, both parties will have to search for new poll partners in Andhra Pradesh, leading to a new political scenario at the 2019 hustings.

BJP may be growing in strength across the country, but analysts say it will have a tough time in expanding its base in Andhra Pradesh on its own.

BJP sources said there was a very vocal section within the party that had opposed the alliance with TDP. These include leaders with RSS background led by MLA Soma Veeraraju and those who joined BJP from Congress, including D Purandeswari, Kanna Lakshminarayana and Kavuri Sambasiva Rao. But the state BJP faces a tough task in improving the 2014 tally of two Lok Sabha and four assembly seats on its own.

In undivided AP, BJP could never make a mark in the polls when it contested on its own. This time around, with both YSR Congress and TDP now portraying it as the villain in the whole drama, it would be very tough for BJP to gain the confidence of the AP electorate.

Another major drawback with BJP is that it does not have a charismatic leader to match the stature of Naidu or YSR Congress chief Jagan Reddy. The only leader who had a mass appeal is M Venkaiah Naidu, who, having become vice president, has to now stay away from politics.

BJP's fortunes can change for the better if it strikes an alliance with YSR Congress. "But such an alliance can work to their advantage only if both their vote banks remain intact post alliance. Otherwise, the minorities could desert Jagan and BJP could lose the little Hindutva votes it has in the state," sources said.

"The best bet for BJP is to remain with TDP," said a party insider. But in the present circumstances, it appears very bleak. Facing a similar situation, the TDP leadership may prefer Jana Sena of film actor Pawan Kalyan. It may even seek support of Left parties as in the past to further consolidate electoral base.