Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Deputy CM Sushil Modi at a public meeting in Araria Wednesday. (Express Photo: Santosh Singh)
It is the BJP that is contesting the Lok Sabha bypoll in Araria, and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who is facing the test. The bypoll, necessitated by the death of RJD MP Mohammed Taslimuddin, could determine how much influence Nitish will retain after having returned to the NDA.
During the previous NDA regimes Nitish headed, the BJP won Araria in both 2004 and 2009. In 2014, by when Nitish had broken away from the NDA, Taslimuddin wrested the seat, part of the Muslim-dominated Seemanchal region. In an election dominated by the projection of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister, Seemanchal went against the nationwide trend, with the BJP failing to win any of the four seats after having held three.
The BJP candidate is once again Pradeep Kumar Singh, who lost to Taslimuddin in 2014, while the RJD has fielded Taslimuddin’s son, Sarfaraz Alam, banking on a combination of Muslim and Yadav voters who account for more than half the electorate. The RJD is also eyeing a section of the SC and EBC votes.
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It faces potential obstacles, however: Sarfaraz does not match the popularity his father enjoyed, while the party could possibly lose some Yadav votes to Victor Yadav, fielded by Pappu Yadav’s Jan Adhikar Party.
The BJP’s worries include infighting triggered by the selection of its candidate. What it is banking on is arithmetic from the past. In 2014, Pradeep Singh had polled 2.61 lakh votes and the JD(U) candidate 2.22 lakh, the total exceeding winner Taslimuddin’s 4.08 lakh votes. BJP leader Sushil Kumar Modi, the Deputy CM, spelt this out Wednesday while addressing a programme in Raniganj, Araria. “We lost in 2014 because the BJP and the JD(U) fought separately but if one combines the BJP and JD(U) votes, we are 70,000-plus votes ahead,” Sushil Modi said. “Now, the RJD cannot do anything against the combined strength of Nitish Kumar.”
While agreeing that the arithmetic is sound, BJP and JD(U) workers on the ground grumble about the choice of candidate. “A better choice could have been Vijay Mandal, the JD(U) candidate in 2014, who later joined the BJP and won the Sikti Assembly seat in 2015,” said a BJP worker. Mandal has been accompanying the BJP candidate on stage but BJP workers on the ground are worried whether Mandal’s supporters will work wholeheartedly for the candidate. “Besides, there is hardly any JD(U) cadre in Araria,” the BJP worker said.
The BJP has already suffered a setback with its MP Sukhdev Paswan joining the RJD. The RJD has brought in former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi to campaign among SC Rishidev voters while the NDA has engaged both its Rishidev ministers, Krishna Kumar Rishidev and Ramji Rishidev. A sizeable section of Araria’s 17 lakh voters are Rishidev.
Araria has six Assembly segments, which are roughly shared between the two sides. The NDA holds Raniganj, Forbesganj and Sikti (all BJP) while the grand alliance has the Assembly seats of Araria (Congress) and Narpatganj (RJD). The sixth seat, Jokihat, is represented by the RJD’s bypoll candidate Sarfaraz, formerly with the JD(U), who had contested in 2015 as a rebel.
The 41% Muslim and 10% Yadav voters are spread over the six segments. A JD(U) worker said the contest would be between the RJD’s M-Y formula and the BJP’s booth-level management. Nitish himself stuck to his development theme in his speech in Raniganj Wednesday. “No section of society is being discriminated against under this regime,” the CM said in a clear message to Muslims. “The amount of development work done for minorities during NDA rule is unmatched… You have to choose between performers and non-performers. They will try to make you fight and take away your votes.”
Rebel JD(U) leader Sharad Yadav addressed an RJD public meeting at Simraha Bazar. “Narendra Modi and Nitish have conspired against Lalu. It is time you overthrew this double engine government in Kosi,” he said. Sarfaraz sought people’s blessings in carrying his father’s legacy forward.
In the audience, the elderly Vidya Charan Yadav said: “Neither did Taslimuddin do anything for Yadavs, nor will Sarafaraz. But we are caught in such a web of caste and religion that we will end up voting for the RJD. The BJP’s Pradeep Kumar Singh does not inspire confidence either.”
JD(U) supporter Suraj Mandal said: “This is an acid test for Tejashwi Yadav too. If he can see the RJD through when his father Lalu Prasad is in jail, he will emerge as a leader.” He agreed the biggest test is for Nitish and that the bypoll will help decide the extent of the CM’s bargaining power with the BJP in 2019.
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