BSP and SP announcing an `electoral understanding’ for Rajya Sabha polls

The nomination process for electing 10 Rajya Sabha members from Uttar Pradesh commenced on Monday with the issuance of notification for the biennial polls by Election Commission of India (ECI).

With the BSP and SP announcing an `electoral understanding’ specifically for Rajya Sabha polls, it  seems certain that the opposition could get the 10th seat as eight would be won by the BJP and one by SP. The 10th seat is likely to be given to BSP.

Principal Secretary, Assembly, Pradeep Kumar Dubey, who is the Returning Officer of the elections, said that the notification has been issued and candidates could submit their nomination papers.

On the first day, no nominations were filed as the parties were yet to decide the candidates.  Dubey said that March 12 was the last date for filing of nominations while after scrutiny of papers the next day, the last date for withdrawals has been fixed on March 15. Voting would be held on March 23, if required, and the counting of votes would be taken up the same day.

 Going by its strength in the Assembly, the opposition can win two seats in Rajya Sabha only when SP, BSP, Congress and RLD come together. With the possibility of the ruling BJP fielding Union Finance minister Arun Jaitely and some other top leaders from UP for Rajya Sabha, the party has initiated consultation for selecting candidates for the Rajya Sabha polls.

Former state BJP chief Lakshmi Kant Bajpai, who lost the 2017 Assembly election from Meerut, is a strong contender for Rajya Sabha seat from UP. It would be interesting to watch if the BJP repeats fire-brand Bajrang Dal leader and former state BJP chief Vinay Katiyar, who often makes the party brass uncomfortable with his provocative statements.

 With 47 MLAs, Akhilesh Yadav-led SP can win one RS seat and still have 10 surplus votes or 10 MLAs to spare. The BSP has 19 MLAs and the Congress seven and they can’t win a single seat on their own. This might force them to strike a deal with the SP to ensure that one more seat comes in the opposition kitty.

The BJP and its allies can easily win eight of the 10 RS seats. With a good number of spare votes, the BJP would eye a ninth seat by fielding an additional candidate, who may sail through in the absence of opposition unity or by cross-voting.

Even as it is sure to win one RS seat, the SP tally in the Upper House will come down from 18 to 13 with its six members, including Naresh Agarwal, Jaya Bachchan and Kironmoy Nada retiring on April 2. 

Similarly, BSP’s RS tally will come down from five to four following the retirement of its MP Munqad Ali. Congress leader Pramod Tewari is also retiring.

In the last Rajya Sabha polls held in June, 2016, horse-trading was witnessed when BJP-backed Independent Priti Mahapatra contested the elections but lost. Priti managed to get 16 votes in her favour from other parties excluding four from the BJP.

With 311 members (325 with allies) in the Assembly, the BJP and allies will easily get eight seats, seven more than the last time. A candidate will require a minimum of 37 first preference votes to win.