Grain Insights

C and S Plains Wheat Not Favored for Rains the Next 2 Weeks

Highlights

• Argentina weather forecast remains dry

• Kansas to remain dry this week

• Brazil fieldwork behind LY pace  

 

Argentina

• Weather forecast shows continued dryness over the next week.

• Chances of precipitation at the end of next week, but weather models do not align and confidence in event remains low.

• Everyday without precipitation reduces production.

 

Brazil

• Weather forecast mostly unchanged.  

• Persistent rains in northern Brazil are expected to continue to slow fieldwork.

 

Brazil Fieldwork Progress

• Ag Rural estimates 35 percent of soybean area has been harvested compared to 47 percent LY.

• Ag Rural estimates that 63 percent of second corn area has been planted behind 75 percent LY.

• Ag Rural estimates 24 percent of first corn area in the center south region of Brazil has been harvested compared to 29 percent LY.  

 

Southern Plains Weather

• The major Kansas Wheat producing region has remained bone dry over the weekend with no measurable rain recorded in Kansas, Oklahoma and the panhandle of Texas.

• Weather is expected to remain dry over the central plains this week as temperatures increase.

• Chances of precipitation in eastern half of Kansas in the beginning of next week.  

 

Latest South America Production Forecasts Informa

• Argentina 17/18 soybean production forecast lowered to 44 MMT from 51 MMT.

• Argentina 17/18 corn production forecast lowered to 33.5 MMT from 37 MMT.

• Brazil 17/18 soybean production forecast lifted to 114 MMT from 112.5 MMT.

• Brazil 17/18 corn production forecast lifted to 89 MMT from 88 MMT

 

Commitments of Traders- Managed Money

• For the week ending Feb 27th, Managed Money increased their net long position in corn by 40,446 contracts to 59,120.

• The net long MM soybean position increased by 48,270 to 147,380 contracts.

• The net short MM position in Chicago wheat was reduced by 6,408 to -60,632.

• The net long KCBT wheat position was reduced by 2,133 contracts to 11,008.

 

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