NDA ends 25-year Red rule in Tripura, retains Nagaland, eyes Meghalaya

Imagine Afghanistan winning the cricket World Cup. That would be nothing short of a miracle despite the spunk that the minnows have lately shown. BJP on Saturday pulled off a feat of similar magnitude in Tripura by winning the state by a two-thirds majority, with enough numbers to form a government on its own. Considering that BJP had polled just over 1% vote share five years ago, with zero representation in the assembly, the victory qualifies as a landslide.
There have been instances of a new party sweeping a poll but this may be the first time that a party has come in from the cold to score a knockout.

The saffron shellacking – the stuff of fantasy for the Sangh Parivar – ended CPM’s 25-year grip over the state and pushed the Marxists into what could arguably be their worst crisis since they split in 1964. Combined with its success in retaining Nagaland as part of a coalition and the strong possibility of it snatching Meghalaya from Congress in company with regional parties, the results from the north-east removed all doubts that BJP has supplanted Congress as the party with real all-India influence.



CPM has been badly hurt by the loss of yet another “red enclave” after it ceded West Bengal to Mamata Banerjee, but Congress has suffered serious damage too. An improved showing in Gujarat and gains in the recent Rajasthan byelections had encouraged Congress to create an impression that it was on the road to recovery from its 2014 rout. The results of Saturday—yet another testament to the appeal of PM Narendra Modi and his promise of development as well as the success of BJP chief Amit Shah in encashing it—have put a spoke in Congress wheel.

Congress has lost office in north-eastern states earlier too. In 1998, the party, with BJP in office at the Centre, had shrunk to just one of the “sisters”. What makes the situation starkly different this time is the presence of an ambitious BJP which earlier won Assam, the biggest prize in the region, and the rapid depletion of Congress’s strength. It has drawn a blank in both Nagaland and Tripura with abysmally low vote shares. In Meghalaya, BJP has made a serious bid to manage the numbers to thwart Congress, which is the single largest party, but 10 short of majority.

A saffron success in Shillong would mean a reduction in Congress-controlled states to just four nationally.

The results have also increased the pressure on Rahul Gandhi to retain Karnataka before leading his troops into battle with BJP for the saffron-ruled states of Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh. BJP, which feels that it lost Karnataka five years ago principally because of a split in its ranks, is determined to retake the state. Saturday’s results appear to have whetted its ambition, going by both Modi and Shah’s remarks at the celebrations.

Congress will also have to contend with the task of forging a broad anti-BJP front and, more crucially, settle the question of who leads it.

Tripura debacle may help Yechury, Vijayan

CPM’s defeat may encourage its general secretary Sitaram Yechury, who wants to do business with Congress, to make a fresh push for his thesis that it is the BJP that is “enemy number 1”. However, Mamata and others will have trouble acquiescing to Congress’s claim that Rahul is the “natural” choice to lead a larger anti-BJP coalition.

The problems facing CPM are far more serious. The reversal in Tripura comes at a time when few are ready to be persuaded by an ideology that has been losing its shine for a while now. The emergence of options — from the New Left espousing themes ranging from environment to alternative sexual mores, to violent Maoists — has curtailed the mainstream Left’s access to the reservoir from which it would earlier recruit.

The change of regime in Agartala enhances the importance of the Kerala unit and CM Pinarayi Vijayan. The ‘overlord’ of violenceprone Kannur has emerged as the undisputed leader but under his leadership, the party seems to be catering more to the already converted. BJP’s ambition, declared boldly by Shah on Saturday, can only create complications for the party which has historically relied on Hindu votes to neutralise Congress’s sizeable lead among Muslims and Christians.