Putin’s Nuclear Arsenal and Aggressive Rhetoric Are Tried and True

Even as a military modernization project has poured billions into the country’s sprawling defense sector, most of the weapons Mr. Putin touted on Thursday before the country’s political elite are little more than souped-up reinventions of Soviet-era defense concepts and armaments Russia already produces.

“Everything that was announced yesterday, we’re not talking about state of the art technology,” said Vladimir Yevseyev, an expert on Russian rocket forces, adding that Russia has weapons like the Topol missile, which can already penetrate the U.S. missile system.

At a time when Russia is facing budget shortages, the Kremlin is reluctant to get involved in a major arms race with Washington.

Instead it is looking to stick by tried and true large-scale projects that project strength, said Dmitry Trenin, the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center. Oil prices are low and Russia faces sanctions for interference in the U.S. 2016 presidential elections and intervention in Ukrainian territory—both of which Moscow denies.

While the new weapons show Russia’s commitment to investing in one of its most powerful weapons, the use of inter-continental ballistic missiles for saber-rattling appears outdated against the capabilities of cyber warfare, he said.

He added that Mr. Putin is used to displays he believes can force Washington to let up in its pressure on Moscow and treat Russia as an equal in the ranks of military superpowers.

“In his view the United States will only respect a country that has enough power and political will to stand up to it,” said Mr. Trenin. “Still, while a collision is not imminent, we must be very, very careful,” he said.

He mentioned recent tensions between Russia and the U.S. last month after a U.S. airstrike in eastern Syria killed an unknown number of Russian military contractors.

The country’s arms sector has made meaningful strides and the 21 trillion rubles, more than $600 billion when first announced in 2010, devoted to the country’s arms sector has produced breakthroughs for the industry.

But that was coming after many years with little investment and reliance on a Soviet-era system that had degraded over the years. Many of the weapons have a long and difficult development histories.

The Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which Mr. Putin praised in graphics illustrating its ability to fly around the South Pole, has been in development since the 2000s when it became clear that the Soviet-era Voevoda rockets had to be replaced.

Last year, test launches were delayed by months, Interfax reported at the time, which could have indicated one or more test failures, Mr. Yevseyev said.

“The preparations, the parts, the tests themselves became much worse since the time of the Soviet Union,” he said. “Which can result in failures that must be overcome.”

More recent efforts to renew the country’s nuclear submarine armaments were long delayed by failed tests that embarrassed Russia’s top brass before its problems were ironed out.

One surprise for experts was Mr. Putin’s announcement of a nuclear-powered cruise missile, a successor to the kind of missile that the U.S. and Soviet Union toyed with at the 1960s height of the Cold War. At the time, the risks involved with nuclear fuel on an airborne motor were considered greater than the benefits and the project was abandoned.

Experts are still split over its efficacy as a weapon though its potential to spread radioactive material would be a hazard, said Pavel Podvig, author of the Russian Nuclear Forces project.

He said, however, that Russia’s over-reliance on its military might is a greater sign of weakness than strength.

“Instead of leading a resurgence, the current Russian leadership has given the military and defense industry a free hand in setting national security,” he said.