The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for March 02, 2018.
Grain market traders continue to monitor rain forecasts for the southwest in the US, and Argentina in SA. Traders are also concerned with the possible tariffs on US steel and aluminum imports. Will the Trump Administration go through with the plan? Let's see what the Sunday talk-shows bring.
Allendale's Annual Planted Acreage Survey is going on now through March 9th. The results will be released on March 14 during a live Ag Leaders Webinar (Register Here). You can help - report your data online Click Here or call 800-262-7538.
President Donald Trump on Thursday ignited a possible trade war by announcing a decision to impose tariffs of 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum to protect both industries from unfairly traded imports that the Commerce Department has determined pose a threat to national security. (Politico)
USDA reported January soybean crush at 174.7 million bushels, above the 173.5 MB average analyst estimate.
Weekly export sales out yesterday had 1,752,996 tonnes of corn sales (all 2017/18), well over the 1,000,000 - 1,500,000 trade expectation. Corn sales are currently ahead of USDA's goal at 75% of USDA's WASDE estimate, over the 73% five year average at this point.
Soybean export sales of 979,989 were also reported, over the 400,000 - 800,000 trade expectation. We have only sold 80% of USDA's whole year estimate. Normally by now this is at 92%.
Wheat sales came in at 236,322 tonnes, just within the 200,000 - 600,00 tonne estimate. Year to date sales of 795 million bushels are 84% of USDA's full year estimate. According to the averages, we should be at 92% by now.
Abiove raised its estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop from 109.5 million tonnes in December to now 114.7. They also raised their estimate of soybean exports from 65 mt in December to now 68.
The weekly Drought Monitor showed the severity of the drought was reduced in the Eastern half of Oklahoma, Eastern Texas, Arkansas, and Southern Missouri after the past seven days of rain (1 to 7 inches).
Managed money funds were estimated buyers of a very strong 24,000 corn contracts in yesterday's trade. Traders estimate they have bought 72,000 corn contracts this week. In soybeans, they were buyers of 16,000 contracts, bringing their week buying-spree to 36,000. Funds bought 15,000 wheat contracts to bring their weekly total to an estimated 46,000 contracts.
Michigan Sentiment is on the economic calendar today at 9:00 PM CST. Any new news of possible trade disputes between the US and the rest of the world will likely take precedence over economic data.
Steer weights fell 8 lbs. in one week to 881 lbs per carcass on the Weekly Actual Slaughter report. Compared with last year they dropped from a 1.1% year/year increase to now even with last year.
Weekly pork export sales were reported at 21,497 tonnes of through Thursday the 22nd. This is 30% over last year in the same period, and marks three weeks in a row of good sales.
Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 1.27 and select up .50. The CME Feeder Index is 147.33. Pork cutout value is down .06.
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