December quarter data likely to show pick-up in GDP growth

A favourable base effect and broad-based pick-up in economic activity may lead to faster gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the December quarter, data for which will be released on Wednesday.

While the Central Statistics Office has projected GDP to grow at 6.5% in 2017-18 based on seven to eight months of data, the Economic Survey released in January cited more recent high-frequency data such as exports, factory output and non-food credit growth to raise the growth estimate to 6.75% for the year ending 31 March.

Given GDP grew 6% in the six months ended 30 September, this implies that growth in the second half (October-March) would rebound to 7.5%. A State Bank of India survey report released earlier this month said economic growth is likely to range between 6.5-7% in the December quarter.

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