Record turnout puts poll pundits in a fix

BHUBANESWAR: The record turnout in the by-poll to Bijepur Assembly constituency, which is likely to cross 80 per cent, has made it difficult to predict the outcome though political observers point towards two possibilities - either it is reflection of strong anti-incumbency or massive mobilisation by the ruling BJD.
Heavy polling is usually taken as a sign of anti-incumbency though this is not a pattern. Besides, polling of 80 per cent plus is nothing unusual for Bijepur. In the last two elections in 2014 and 2009, the constituency had recorded 80 per cent and 70 per cent polling respectively and the results had gone in favour of Congress.

As the Congress was left behind because of lack of resources and late announcement of its candidate, the BJP is likely to have benefited from the trend. The aggressive campaigning by the BJP led by Union Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Dharmendra Pradhan and other senior leaders forced Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik to visit the Assembly segment for two days to woo the voters in favour of the party’s candidate Rita Sahu.

However, going by the confidence in the BJD camp, political observers do not rule out the possibility of a massive mobilisation by the ruling party. This is evident from the fact that almost the entire Cabinet and more than two dozen senior leaders of the BJD, including MPs and MLAs had camped in the constituency for the last several months.

The Congress camp is not highly optimistic over the by-poll result. Though there was an undercurrent of goodwill for its candidate Pranaya Sahu and the party hoped for consolidation of Kulta caste in its favour, it remains to be seen how far these are translated to votes.Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly and Congress veteran Narasingh Mishra refused to be drawn into any speculation over the results. “Let us wait for February 28 for the outcome,” he said.

Rajya Sabha member and BJD in-charge of the by-poll Prasanna Acharya was, however, optimistic. “Heavy polling is a good sign and the BJD will win with a comfortable margin,” he said. Senior BJP leader Sajjan Sharma was equally confident about the success of party candidate Ashok Panigrahy. “People of the constituency came out to vote in large number despite the atmosphere of terror created by the ruling BJD,” he said.