000
AXNT20 KNHC 090003
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST Thu Feb 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface 
pressure gradient between a surface ridge in the north Atlantic 
Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America, will 
continue to support minimal gale-force winds near and along the 
coast of Colombia for the next few days, during the late night and
early morning hours. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast 
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The Monsoon Trough axis passes through the coastal border 
sections of Liberia and the Ivory Coast near 05N08W, and it
extends to 01N20W where latest scatterometer data indicates the 
ITCZ begins and dips to below the equator at 23W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm S of the axis
between 07W-09W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm N 
of the axis between 11W-12W, and within 30 nm S of the axis 
between 11W-12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 21Z, a cold front extends from near Naples Florida 
southwestward to 22N86W, then to 22N90W and to 22N92W, where it 
becomes a stationary front to the eastern Bay of Campeche and to 
inland Mexico at 19N92W. Latest satellite imagery satellite 
imagery shows abundant deep layer multilayer clouds with scattered
showers and thunderstorms underneath them concentrated over the 
SW Gulf. Scattered showers and patches of rain are elsewhere W of 
89W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the far
N Central Gulf near the coast of Louisiana while isolated showers
are over the eastern gulf waters.

Strong high pressure is surging southward from Texas to along the
coast of Mexico and toward the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico.

The current cold front will stall from SW Florida, to 23N95W, into
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico tonight and dissipate by 
Fri. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast late on 
Sunday, and then become stationary from near the Mississippi 
Delta to the western Bay of Campeche on Monday. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the 
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the
NW Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula, the eastern part of 
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and 
Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
from 22N southward between 90W and 95W, and associated with the
current cold front that is in the Gulf of Mexico. isolated 
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 15N to 
22N between 80W and 96W, covering parts of the NW Caribbean Sea, 
interior sections of Central America, and parts of the SW corner 
of the Gulf of Mexico.

Broken to overcast low-level clouds and possible isolated showers
are seen N of 15N and W of 83W, S of 15N between 71W-74W and 
over portions of the eastern Caribbean. These clouds and showers
are moving quickly westward in strong trade wind flow.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 08/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 3.31 in 
Curacao, and 0.07 in Guadeloupe. 

Strong to near gale force trades will prevail across the south- 
central Caribbean Sea this week, except for nocturnal pulses to 
minimal gale-force along the NW coast of Colombia. Fresh to 
strong trade winds are expected elsewhere across the central 
Caribbean Sea, including the north-central passages through Fri. 
These strong conditions then will spread eastward across the 
eastern Caribbean Sea waters, and persist through Monday night. 
Strong trade winds and building seas are forecast across the 
tropical waters north of 11N through early next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 32N76W southwestward to inland 
Florida near Fort Pierce. Isolated showers are possible to the NW
of a line from 32N60W, to the coast of Florida near 27N80W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean between 
Africa and the SE U.S.A. A nearly stationary 1038 mb high 
pressure center is near 36N35W. 

The aforementioned cold front will shift eastward and stall from 
Bermuda to southeast Florida early on Friday. Remnants of the 
front will lift northward across the waters that are to the north 
of the Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Another cold front will 
move off the NE Florida coast late on Mon. Fresh to locally 
strong trade winds are expected to continue along the northern 
coast of Hispaniola and the Atlantic Ocean approach to the 
Windward Passage through Friday. A tightening pressure gradient 
then will support strong trade winds across all the waters S of 
23N by late Sat. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/Aguirre