Line of no control

The death of an Indian army captain and three jawans in unprovoked Pakistani shelling on February 4 in the Bhimber Gali sector of Rajouri district has refocused attention on the simmering situation on the Line of Control (LoC).

This ceasefire violation (CFV) is but the latest in a sharp escalation in the past few years and especially since 2017. The facts speak for themselves. Between 2003, when the ceasefire came into effect, and 2007, there were 21 violations (all in 2007) on the LoC and three on the International Border (IB). There were three army casualties. In the next five years, between 2008 and 2012, the number of violations went up to 367 (293 LoC, 74 IB) resulting in four civilian casualties (all in 2012), and 20 among the security forces (army and BSF). However, in the succeeding five years, from 2013 till 2017, the number shot up to 2,764 (1,592 LoC, 1,172 IB). Of these, 980 (860 LoC, 120 IB) were in 2017 alone. In the same five-year period, 55 civilians and 61 security personnel (army and BSF) were killed. In the first 36 days of 2018, there have already been 241 CFVs across the LoC claiming the lives of nine Indian soldiers.

What explains this spike in CFVs since 2017 and now continuing in 2018?

For one thing, Pakistan has been smarting after India's September 2016 surgical strikes. India had hoped it would learn its lesson and desist from its cross-LoC violations. Having delivered the message, India seems to have. gone into restraint mode, hoping for a change in behaviour. Pakistan has clearly taken advantage of India's restraint, seeing it as an opportunity. After licking its wounds, it has resumed its antics, both in terms of infiltrating terrorists and CFV.

At the same time, the February 4 CFV also had a Pakistani domestic element, coinciding as it did with Kashmir Solidarity Day.

For the past 28 years, Pakistan has been observing February 5 as Kashmir Solidarity Day, a national holiday, to ostensibly convey to the Kashmiris their 'moral, political and diplomatic' support. The day is marked by speeches, processions, human chains, prayers etc. India-bashing and raising slogans like 'Kashmir banega Pakistan' , 'Kashmir is Pakistan's jugular vein', 'Kashmir and Pakistan are like one soul in two hearts', are common.

However, what has been noticeable in the past decade is that the occasion has failed to evoke the same fervor as it did in the 1990s. According to a 2016 Gallup poll in Pakistan, since 1990, there has been a 19 per cent increase in those who believe Kashmir will not be able to gain independence at all; and a 14 per cent decrease in those who believe that Kashmir would gain independence in one or two years. This is possibly due to sheer fatigue or the realisation how impossible the task is.

One evidence of this fatigue is the bland message on the occasion by army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa that Kashmiris are awaiting the awakening of the international community for plebiscite in Kashmir under the UN resolution. Nawaz Sharif used the occasion to lament his dismissal by the Supreme Court.

Decreasing enthusiasm on the one hand coupled with the successes of the Indian army in targeting terrorists in Kashmir has resulted in a situation where the Pak army is looking for ways to keep the Kashmir cause alive.

The best way to do it is, of course, to ratchet up tensions along the LoC. In the process, the situation on the LoC has degenerated into a spiral of violence and counter-violence. The moot point is whether it will continue to smoulder with frequent CFVs or threaten erupt like a volcano.

Tilak Devasher is author of Pakistan: Courting the Abyss and a former Special Secretary, GoI