Modi, Trudeau and Trump: The appeal of ‘wave’ leaders?

Over the last decade, I’ve had the opportunity to either cover or vote in a series of wave elections: From the historic election of Barack Obama to the White House in 2008, the Lok Sabha majority for the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party in 2014, Justin Trudeau’s similarly stellar performance heading the Liberal Party in the Canadian federal polls in 2015, and then, of course, Donald Trump’s elevation to the Oval Office in 2016.

The curious aspect of these tenures (or at least, most of them) is that while several faults have been placed at the door of the parties concerned, rarely have they impacted the popularity of their leaders. Neither Modi nor Trudeau will be anxious at the prospect of the next national elections. The latter faces a Conservative opposition led by someone with all the charisma of a chunk of cheese, while Modi retains his aura.

The outsider in this equation of sweeping personalities is the American president. Trump has continued to dig himself into a hole, whether that is preceded by an expletive or not. While the others have pursued the political positions their ideologies dictate, despite pragmatic facades, he is again the odd man out. He has delivered upon a sizeable slice of his promises, with the conservative Heritage Foundation putting that figure at nearly two-third. Despite such delivery, he hasn’t managed progress on the signature issue of his campaign – immigration. That could decide his fate, and that of the Republican Party. The whiff of making concessions for young illegal immigrants, the Dreamers, is riling his hardline support. That’s partly why his State of the Union address harped on immigration; it was to appeal to his base’s instincts. The continuing lack of a major win in this column could well build a wall around his chances of re-election.

That may be a key differentiator between Trump and the other ‘wave’ leaders: His followers have become accustomed to a shiny new object almost every week, while the others have dulled the keen edge of expectation to the extent that minor mercies are celebrated.

The story here is that these personalities dominating the political landscape often escape disenchantment with their work. Obama, for instance, could only shepherd an ailing economy into a state of anaemia despite the transfusion of record borrowing. His record on the international stage was paltry if not pathetic, what with the rise of the Islamic State and Russia’s annexation of the Crimea, among other products of a passive policy. Despite the failure of both fronts, he still managed to comfortably better Mitt Romney in 2012. Modi and Trudeau could be similarly placed. As for Trump, who knows. Given his unique ability to upend all forecasts, he could last seven days or another seven years.

Anirudh Bhattacharyya is a Toronto-based commentator on American affairs

The views expressed are personal