EU28 apparent steel consumption grew by 1.1pct - EUROFER
Apparent steel consumption concerns the supply of all steel products delivered to the EU28 market by domestic producers in the EU or third country exporters. EU28 apparent steel consumption grew by 1.1% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2017. In contrast to the second quarter which was characterised by a contraction in domestic deliveries from EU suppliers due to a sharp increase in third imports, domestic deliveries rose by 4.4% year-on- year.
EU domestic and foreign supply
Having grown by around 8% year-on-year over the first half of 2017, the trend in third country imports turned negative in the third quarter of last year. Total steel imports fell by almost 14% year-on-year. This has to be seen in a context of an improvement in global steel prices – largely driven by the Chinese market – which narrowed the gap with EU domestic prices over imports. Another factor was the weakening of imports from China and some other countries that had anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures placed on them by the European Commission after investigations. However, this also triggered other third country suppliers to increase exports to the EU.
Fairly similar market conditions are expected to have shaped the supply-demand situation in the fourth quarter. EU28 apparent steel demand is estimated to have risen by 1.9% in 2017.
Apparent steel consumption forecast 2018-2019
Prospects for a continued recovery in EU steel demand are positive. The expected strength of most steel using sectors bodes well for the demand side of the EU steel market. The supply side situation could be negatively affected by import distortions.
EU apparent steel consumption - in million tonnes per year
Forecast for EU apparent steel consumption - % change year-on-year
EU domestic and foreign supply
Having grown by around 8% year-on-year over the first half of 2017, the trend in third country imports turned negative in the third quarter of last year. Total steel imports fell by almost 14% year-on-year. This has to be seen in a context of an improvement in global steel prices – largely driven by the Chinese market – which narrowed the gap with EU domestic prices over imports. Another factor was the weakening of imports from China and some other countries that had anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures placed on them by the European Commission after investigations. However, this also triggered other third country suppliers to increase exports to the EU.
Fairly similar market conditions are expected to have shaped the supply-demand situation in the fourth quarter. EU28 apparent steel demand is estimated to have risen by 1.9% in 2017.
Apparent steel consumption forecast 2018-2019
Prospects for a continued recovery in EU steel demand are positive. The expected strength of most steel using sectors bodes well for the demand side of the EU steel market. The supply side situation could be negatively affected by import distortions.
EU apparent steel consumption - in million tonnes per year
| Year | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017(f) | 2018 (f) | 2019 (f) |
| Million tonnes | 121 | 148 | 158 | 141 | 141 | 146 | 152 | 157 | 160 | 163 | 165 |
Forecast for EU apparent steel consumption - % change year-on-year
| Period | Q1-17 | Q2-17 | Q3-17 | Q4-17 | 2017 | Q1-18 | Q2-18 | Q3-18 | Q4-18 | 2018 | 2019 |
| % change | 3.8 | -0.4 | 1.1 | 3 | 1.9 | 1 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
Posted By : Nanda Koijam on Thu, 08 Feb 2018