000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080316
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Feb 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...The pressure gradient across 
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec will tighten Thu as high pressure 
builds southward into Mexico and a cold front enters the western 
Gulf of Mexico. Gale force gap winds are expected over the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec for about 24 hours, peaking by early Fri with 
seas to 13-15 ft. Winds over the Gulf will become light and 
variable by Sat afternoon.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 06N91W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N91W to 09N133W to 13N140W. No significant 
convection is noted across the basin along the convergence zone.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure ridge prevails across the area anchored by a
surface high located north of the area. The pressure gradient 
along and offshore of the Baja California peninsula is producing 
gentle to moderate NW winds, with seas generally 5 to 7 ft. A 
fairly quiet pattern should persist through the beginning of the 
weekend. Later in the weekend, NW swell of 7-8 ft will reach the 
offshore waters off Baja California Norte. 

Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas are 
expected through early Fri. A low pressure trough will develop 
over the Baja Peninsula on Fri and Sat, and S to SW winds E of 
the trough N of 29N will strengthen on Sat in advance of an 
approaching cold front.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fuego Volcano in Guatemala: Intermittent minor eruptions of ash 
are expected to remain over land during the next 24 hours.

Gulf of Papagayo: Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong 
each night through the weekend. Areal coverage of gap winds near 
the Gulf of Papagayo will increase Thu night and Fri, and allow 
the wind-generated seas to propagate further downwind from its 
source region, merging with the seas downwind from the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Fri and Sat. Winds will decrease on Sun and Mon.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail north 
of 09N, and light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail 
S of 09N through Fri night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening surface trough extends from 22N123W to 17N122W. An 
upper-level low is producing widespread cloudiness from 16N to 
27N east of 120W, with embedded isolated showers indicated from 
satellite imagery.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of 30N and 
lower pressure associated with the convergence zone will support 
gentle to moderate trade winds during the next several days. The 
exception will be fresh southerly winds expected to develop W of 
135W and N of 18N through Fri, associated with an area of low 
pressure developing W of 140W. Seas will be 7 to 9 ft in western 
waters this weekend.

$$

Mundell