Racing toward Brooklyn: Battle for the double bye heats up

By Bob Holliday, WRALSportsFan columnist

OK, Virginia will finish first in the ACC – the only question now is whether the Cavaliers lose a couple of games or finish a historic 18-0. But look beyond Virginia. The next dozen teams sit within three to four games of one another.

And they all still have something to play for. In fact, the top eight or so all have a chance to finish second, third, or fourth, which means getting an extra day off at the ACC Tournament.

So let the competition begin, the battle for the double bye!

NC State (6-4)

Recent history: Who would have thought in early January that NC State would have a chance to sit out Tuesday AND Wednesday in Brooklyn? The dreadful loss at Notre Dame, not to mention all those years in the 90’s when State was relegated to the play-in game, certainly discouraged all thought of a free pass until Thursday.

But this team is trending upward. The Wolfpack played its best game of the season against Notre Dame, scoring efficiently on offense and forcing the Irish into turnovers and a low shooting percentage. State led at one point by 30 and finally settled on an 18-point margin at the final buzzer. I asked Kevin Keatts if there were anything in his team’s play he was unhappy with. The coach responded that he felt his players got a little selfish toward the end of the game and didn’t share the ball as well as he wants.

“I hope to coach the perfect game some time before I’m 75,” Keatts said.

So Saturday was not perfect, but it was pretty darn good. The Pack has now won three straight, 4-of-5, and 6-of-8. That’s what I call trending upward.

Strengths and weaknesses: State played more of the big lineup against Notre Dame, a good rebounding team. Abdul-Malik Abu played his best game of the ACC season. State has of course also had great success recently with smaller line ups-Omer Yurtseven and four guards. So a real plus for the Pack right now is the flexibility Kevin Keatts can wield with his personnel.

State’s ball movement has improved markedly since the return of Markell Johnson. Shooting and rebounding have also improved, though State still ranks in the lower echelon from 3 point range.

Biggest challenge: State ranks dead last in the league, ACC games only, in field goal defense. Teams are shooting 48 percent against the Pack thus far. State has improved in defending shots beyond the arc. If the Pack can make opponents take “tougher 2’s” alongside well-defended 3’s, and continue that 94-foot pressure before the shot, this could be a very interesting February in West Raleigh. State ranks third in the ACC in turnovers forced. This team is healthy now, but needs better play on the road, and more consistent shooting/ball movement against zones.

Future schedule:

• At Virginia Tech
• UNC
• At Syracuse
• At Wake Forest
• Boston College
• Florida State
• At Georgia Tech
• Louisville

To my point about better road play, State has winnable games on the road if the Pack will simply defend and move the basketball as it does at home. Finishing in the top four may require a record of 11-5, 12-6 at least. State has some difficult home games, so a 3-1 finish on the road could spell the difference between playing Wednesday vs. getting to wait until Thursday.

Duke (7-3)

Recent history: The Blue Devils Saturday lost famously to a St. John’s team that hadn’t won since December. Coach Mike Krzyzewski deemed Duke’s first 32 minutes as “not worthy” of the program’s standards. Coach K described the Blue Devils Saturday “as a hard team to coach.”

The St. John’s loss followed a 22-point blowout of injury riddled Notre Dame and a tight loss to powerful Virginia. Duke played extremely well in the second half of both games. Despite the loss at Madison Square Garden, this team has been on the upswing in the ACC since a 1-2 start, winning five of the last six in league play. One has to figure the focus which was missing in the loss to St. John’s, will return at a high level when the Blue Devils take on rival North Carolina.

Strengths and weaknesses: With the return of Marques Bolden this team appears to be healthy now, at least physically. Duke is the ACC’s best shooting team, hitting 49 percent in conference games.

The Devils excel beyond the arc, hitting almost 39 percent. Quietly, the Blue Devils have made some improvement defensively. Duke now ranks 4th in ACC-only games in field goal defense, holding opponents to 41 percent. Also, Duke ranks 6th in turnovers forced, 5th in blocks, and 3rd in steals.

Duke ranks among the top three in offensive rebounding, but the Devils have slipped on the defensive boards, only clearing 69 percent of opponent misses, 8th in the ACC. Free throws have become a real problem. Duke shoots just 68 percent and ranks 14th. Only Wake Forest is worse. And turnovers are a problem. Duke commits 12.8 per game now. Only 4 other ACC teams are worse at protecting the ball. This was a huge problem against St. John’s.

Future schedule:

• At UNC
• At Georgia Tech
• Virginia Tech
• At Clemson
• Louisville
• Syracuse
• At Virginia Tech
• UNC

Duke has an advantage in the bid for the double bye, owning a record of 7-3 vs. 6-4 or 5-5. Duke faces some dicey road games. I am here especially thinking of the trips to Clemson and Virginia Tech, which may not command the same intensity from this freshman dominated group as the upcoming trip to Chapel Hill. Clemson and Virginia Tech are both tough outs at home. Duke should win at least three of its final home games and probably all four. The Devils will need at least a split on the road to be sure of getting a pass until Thursday’s play-something Duke could not achieve last year.

UNC (6-5)

Recent history: The Tar Heels overpowered Pitt in the second half in a 96-65 win. Although Pitt seemed to make every three in the first half, ultimately UNC outshot the Panthers from beyond the arc for the game. This marked just the 2nd time in 11 games the Tar Heels had posted a higher 3-point percentage than their opponent.

Earlier in the week, UNC lost at Clemson while allowing the same 15-of-30 3-point shooting that sank the Tar Heels against NC State. UNC won four straight games after starting 1-2, but then the Heels suffered a rare three-game losing streak before winning against Pitt.

Strengths and weaknesses: The suspension of Jalek Felton leaves North Carolina lacking in backcourt depth, at least until Seventh Woods returns to full strength. Theo Pinson’s shoulder gave the Tar Heel Nation quite a scare Saturday night when Pinson headed to the locker room just two minutes in.

But he returned to the game and pulled down 13 rebounds while handing out eight assists, so presumably he’s OK. Roy Williams used both Garrison Brooks and Sterling Manley extra minutes against Pitt – actually used them together at times.

The Tar Heels will need their freshmen bigs to protect the rim and rebound in these final seven games; some scoring would be helpful as well. UNC could shoot better. The Tar Heels shoot 44 percent overall (7th) and 34 percent from three (10th).

But their biggest issues continue to be found on the defensive end. The Heels allow opponents to shoot 43 percent overall (8th) and a whopping 39 percent from deep (13th). This team doesn’t block many shots and above all it does not force turnovers. Passing and rebounding are huge strengths, but if the Heels can’t step it up defensively those won’t matter.

Future schedule:

• Duke
• At NC State
• Notre Dame
• At Louisville
• At Syracuse
• Miami
• At Duke

North Carolina is something of a long shot to make the top four because of already having five losses and facing a pretty brutal finishing schedule. The Heels must play Duke, State, and Notre Dame in a five-day span. They face difficult road trips to Louisville and Syracuse (not to mention the road game at NC State), then finish with Miami at home and Duke on the road. The Heels will need a 6-1 finish to have a shot at the double bye in my judgment. That’s a very tall order (see above).

Other Contenders:

Clemson 8-3

The Tigers have lost multi-talented forward Donte Grantham for the season. But they have won three games without him. Clemson may be the best balanced, offensively and defensively, among the contenders, with solid stats at both ends of the floor. This team, which I believe is Brad Brownell’s best team offensively, has become a real force shooting the three ball, ranking 2nd in the ACC at 39 percent.

Clemson holds opponents to 42 percent from the floor and the Tigers rank No. 1 in the ACC in blocked shots. Turnovers have been a problem at times. Clemson has a favorable schedule ahead, having already played Virginia, UNC (twice), and NC State (twice). Games with Duke and Florida State (twice) will determine whether Clemson is in or out of the ACC Top 4.

Miami 6-4

The Hurricanes have lost backcourt star Bruce Brown for six weeks with an injury. Yet the Canes won at Virginia Tech without Brown. Miami is playing a faster tempo this year, but still plays solid defense; plus second shots against this team can be difficult to come by. The Canes are among the league leaders in forcing turnovers, yet they don’t turn the ball over that much themselves.

The biggest variable for Jim Larranaga’s club: shooting. When Miami moves the ball and hits shots (as it did against NC State and VT) this team becomes very difficult to beat. Miami has a favorable schedule with five home games of the remaining eight, although Virginia is one of the teams coming to Coral Gables in the near future. The Canes play just three more road games – at Notre Dame, Boston College, and UNC. This team has already shown it can win on the road.

Florida State 6-5

What a roller coaster season it has been for the Seminoles. Largely forgotten after a 1-3 start, FSU then won four of five. Then the inconsistent ‘Noles lost at Wake Forest. Before upsetting Louisville at the Yum! Center.

This team is playing faster – second in scoring behind Duke at 84 points per game. The problem is, the ‘Noles allow 82 points per game in ACC play. FSU is not forcing turnovers or blocking shots, as Leonard Hamilton’s teams usually do. This is not a great rebounding bunch, especially on the defensive end. FSU ranks 11th in the ACC in field goal defense and 12th in 3 point defense. FSU has some tough games ahead too: Virginia, at NC State, plus a home and home with Clemson.

Louisville 6-5

The Cardinals were 6-2, but have lost the last three games. UL got whipped at Virginia (join the club), but then suffered stunning losses at home against Florida State Saturday and Syracuse Monday night. U of L has improved its shooting this year, to 46 percent (3rd). The Cards hit 37 percent from three (6th). Defensive numbers under new coach David Padgett look pretty solid – among other things, Louisville stands among the leaders in blocked shots and steals. Statistically, only rebounding is a weak area.

The Cards have size, but suddenly they are losing on the glass. UL rebounds just 26p ercent of its missed shots, while opponents claim 32 percent of their misses. Both of those rebounding percentages rank 12th in the 15 team ACC. This won’t cut it – to win the “Battle of the Double Bye” you’ve got win every battle of the boards. Also, Louisville has some tough games ahead: UNC and Virginia at home; Duke and NC State on the road. I really thought Louisville would finish in the top four at this time last week. That home loss to Syracuse Monday night really hurt the Cards’ chances.

Virginia Tech 5-5

VT had won three straight but lost at home to Miami last time out. And that loss put the Hokies behind the “8 Ball.” This is an exciting team to watch. The Hokies can really shoot and force turnovers. Good passing helps Buzz Williams’ club capitalize on turnovers; with transition and versatile players spread all over the court-Virginia Tech is difficult to cover. But the problem is VT doesn’t rebound. If the shots don’t fall, the Hokies are toast.

They’re also not a great defensive team, beyond the ability to get some steals. Teams shoot 47 percent against VT in ACC games. That ranks near the bottom. VT has a critically important game Wednesday night against NC State. After that, the Hokies must play Duke (twice), Clemson, Louisville; they’re also at Virginia and at Miami. To me Virginia Tech has the toughest remaining schedule, along with UNC. Should the Hokies lose to NC State Wednesday night at the Cassell Coliseum, their bid to finish in the top four is likely over.

Yes, there are some other teams, Syracuse, for example, which with 6 losses can still mathematically squeeze into the top four. But the Orange would have to win out and get some help from the eight teams listed above.

Duke last season demonstrated that a team can finish fifth in the regular season and still win the ACC Tournament playing four straight days. But that marked the first time in 25 years of playing games over four days that any team won all four, and of course, now the ACC Tournament is a five-day event, and no team in this league has come close to winning Tuesday thru Saturday.

The teams with a chance to finish in the top four, especially those that depend heavily on their defense, are going to fight like crazy for that upper tier finish in the standings, and the right to rest their legs one extra day.