What could be considered a ho-hum season to this point — at least in terms of the Pac-12’s impact on the national scene — is set up for several weeks of significant internal drama.
In fact, the ordinary nature of the past three months is the very reason for the stretch-run pressure.
With so many teams on various sides of the NCAA tournament bubble, the conference tournament in Las Vegas could be a make-or-break event for all but one or two.
That makes earning one of the top-four seeds, and a bye into the quarterfinals, essential.
As of now, Arizona, USC and Washington are well positioned for opening-round byes.
Stanford and UCLA are tied for fourth place, but Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah are within two games (reasonable range with a month remaining).
This is not Hotline theory or postulation. Nope, not this time. I hit the books to confirm fact and theory agree.
Teams that participate in Wednesday’s opening round fare poorly in the quarterfinals and even worse in the semifinals.
It’s the disparity in talent and skill — as reflected by the seeds — and the onset of fatigue. It’s both.
(I’ve always felt fatigue is a greater issue for the opening round winners once they reach the semifinals, because the compounding effect of three games in three days is so much greater than two games in two days.)
Only once in the six years of the current format has a team that played Wednesday reached the finals.
Here’s the breakdown, with opening round winners and their fate:
2012
No. 9 Oregon State: Lost in semifinals
No. 5 UCLA: Lost in quarterfinals
No. 7 Stanford: Lost in quarterfinals
No. 6 Colorado: Won title
2013
No. 9 Arizona State: Lost in quarterfinals
No. 5 Colorado: Lost in quarterfinals
No. 10 Utah: Lost in semifinals
No. 6 Washington: Lost in quarterfinals
2014
No. 8 Utah: Lost in quarterfinals
No. 5 Colorado: Lost in semifinals
No. 7 Oregon: Lost in quarterfinals
No. 6 Stanford: Lost in semifinals
2015
No. 8 Cal: Lost in quarterfinals
No. 12 USC: Lost in quarterfinals
No. 10 Colorado: Lost in quarterfinals
No. 6 Stanford: Lost in quarterfinals
2016
No. 8 Washington: Lost in quarterfinals
No. 5 Colorado: Lost in quarterfinals
No. 7 USC: Lost in quarterfinals
No. 6 Oregon State: Lost in quarterfinals
2017
No. 8 Arizona State: Lost in quarterfinals
No. 5 Cal: Lost in semifinals
No. 7 Colorado: Lost in quarterfinals
No. 6 USC: Lost in quarterfinals
Record of opening-round winners in the quarterfinals: 6-18
Record of opening-round winners in semifinals: 1-5
Record of opening-round winners in finals: 1-0
It’s not hard to imagine a scenario in which selection week arrives with several teams in desperate need of the extra quality win or two that would come with a deep run in Las Vegas.
That would be made far easier by avoiding the opening round.
1. Arizona (19-5/9-2)
Last week: 1
Results: Won at Washington State 100-72, lost at Washington 78-75
Next up: vs. UCLA (Thursday)
Comment: The Wildcats are 5-0 at home in conference play, but consider the winning margins: 6, 9, 7, 9 and 1. We’re used to seeing a 17, 19 or 23 in there. Then again, tough to run and hide when the opponent keeps scoring.
2. USC (17-7/8-3)
Last week: 2
Results: Lost at UCLA 82-79
Next up: at Arizona State (Thursday)
Comment: The Trojans need Utah and Colorado to keep winning so their season-ending trip presents two opportunities for Quadrant 1 wins (road games vs. RPI top 75).
3. Washington (17-6/7-3)
Last week: 3
Results: Beat Arizona State 68-64 and Arizona 78-75
Next up: at Oregon (Thursday)
Comment: Starting Feb. 15, Huskies play six teams that will be facing their zone for the second time. How will opponents adjust, and how will UW counter those adjustments?
4. Stanford (13-11/7-4)
Last week: 5
Results: Beat Oregon State 80-71 and Oregon 96-61
Next up: at Utah (Thursday)
Comment: Of the seven games left, five are daunting: at Mountains, UW at home, at Arizonas. Best case for the Cardinal might be to grab two from that group, then add Ws vs. Cal and WSU and finish 11-7.
5. UCLA (16-7/7-4)
Last week: 7
Results: Beat USC 82-79
Next up: at Arizona (Thursday)
Comment: Many have understandably pegged Deandre Ayton for Pac-12 POY, but I’m not so sure — at least, not yet. Aaron Holiday is making his teammates better and doing so with the stellar efficiency (47.2/42.5/83.1).
6. Colorado (13-10/5-6)
Last week: 8
Results: Beat Utah 67-55
Next up: vs. Cal (Wednesday)
Comment: Buffs have one of the most difficult finishing stretches in the conference. Sweeping the Bay Area schools is essential to avoiding a late collapse.
7. Utah (13-9/5-6)
Last week: 4
Results: Lost at Colorado 67-55
Next up: vs. Stanford (Thursday)
Comment: Continue to believe the Utes are capable of causing serious damage in the conference tournament. And they continue to test that belief.
8. Arizona State (17-6/5-6)
Last week: 6
Results: Lost at Washington 68-64, beat Washington State 88-78
Next up: vs. USC (Thursday)
Comment: Devils have played four games against teams that are .500 or better in conference play, and they’re 0-4. Here comes No. 5 (team, not loss … although it could be loss No. 5).
9. Oregon (15-8/5-5)
Last week: 9
Results: Won at Cal 66-53, lost at Stanford 96-61
Next up: vs. Washington (Thursday)
Comment: Calling for an upset in Eugene: Ducks will be ornery after the no-show at Stanford, while Huskies are in post-Arizona letdown mode. The difference: second-chance points for Oregon.
10. Oregon State (11-11/3-7)
Last week: 10
Results: Lost at Stanford 80-71 and Cal 74-70.
Next up: vs. Washington State (Thursday)
Comment: Don’t have the heart to inform the Beavers that both UC Riverside and Central Arkansas won in Berkeley.
11. Washington State (9-13/1-9)
Last week: 11
Results: Lost to Arizona 100-72 and Arizona State 88-78
Next up: at Oregon State (Thursday)
Comment: Don’t forget WSU also beat St. Joseph’s in November (in addition to San Diego State and Saint Mary’s). Until very recently, the Hawks were over .500 in the A10.
12. Cal (8-16/2-9)
Last week: 12
Results: Lost to Oregon 66-53, beat Oregon State 74-70
Next up: at Colorado (Wednesday)
Comment: If you’re wondering (because I was), the Bears’ worst season in the Pac-10/12 era was 1980, when they were 3-15 under coach Dick Kuchen. WSU’s upcoming visit to Berkeley provides a good chance to equal that mark.
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