At halftime, Nick Foles is MVP front-runner and Eagles’ win probability is at 68 percent

Nick Foles of the Philadelphia Eagles has completed 13 of 22 passes for 215 yards with a touchdown and interception in the first half, plus he had a one-yard catch for a touchdown. (Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Note: This post will be updated after each scoring play, with the more recent score appearing at the top of the story.

Eagles 22, Patriots 12 at the half

Eagles with a 68 percent win probability

Nick Foles has completed 13 of 22 passes for 215 yards with a touchdown and interception in the first half, plus he had a one-yard catch for a touchdown, giving him a total win probability added of 21 percent, the highest among any player in Super Bowl LII — that makes him the front-runner for the Super Bowl MVP award.

(0:34, 2nd) Tight end Trey Burton throws a one-yard touchdown pass to quarterback Nick Foles (yes, you read that right)

Eagles 22, Patriots 12, Eagles with a 68 percent win probability

Eagles running back Corey Clement produced 62 yards on three plays from scrimmage on that 70-drive scoring drive, but it was a trick play that ended up putting the points on the board. Give credit to coach Doug Pederson for going for it on 4th and 1 with 38 seconds left.

(2:12, 2nd) James White rushes for a 26-yard touchdown

Eagles 15, Patriots 12, Patriots with a 56 percent win probability

White scores a touchdown for New England, cutting the Eagles lead to three points after kicker Stephen Gostkowski misses the extra point. Why, then, are the Patriots in the lead in terms of win probability? Remember, they were a 4.5-point favorite to open the game, so this is in essence a tie game with New England considered the better team.

(5:15, 2nd) Nick Foles throws an interception

Eagles 15, Patriots 6, Eagles with a 60 percent win probability

The Eagles were rolling, as Jay Ajayi had a 26-yard run to put Philadelphia close to the red zone. But then Foles’ pass directed at Alshon Jeffery is deflected and falls into the arms of Patriots safety Duron Harmon, giving him his fifth interception this year.

(7:29, 2nd) Stephen Gostkowski hits a 45-yard field goal

Eagles 15, Patriots 6, Eagles with a 66 percent win probability

Gostkowski makes up for his previous miss and gets the Patriots within nine points. Rex Burkhead had the play of the drive, a 46-yard catch from Brady on a screen pass to start things off.

(8:55, 2nd) LeGarrette Blount rushes for a 21-yard touchdown

Eagles 15, Patriots 3, Eagles with a 76 percent win probability

Blount found a seam up the middle and went largely untouched into the end zone, his 11th career touchdown in the playoffs. He had a 36-yard gain up the middle behind the left guard earlier in the game.

(14:13, 2nd) Stephen Gostkowski misses a 26-yard field goal

Eagles 9, Patriots 3, Eagles with a 55 percent win probability

(2:41, 1st) Nick Foles to Alshon Jeffrey for a 34-yard touchdown

Eagles 9, Patriots 3, Eagles with a 55 percent win probability

Things are getting interesting in Minnesota. Foles hits Jeffery in the end zone for a big gain and the score, but they miss the extra point. Foles accounted for 41 of the 77 yards on that drive, giving him a lion’s share of the 19 percent win probability added by that score.

(4:20, 1st) Stephen Gostkowski hits a 26-yard field goal

Patriots 3, Eagles 3, Patriots with a 64 percent win probability

Gostkowski gets the Patriots their first points in the first quarter of a Super Bowl with Bill Belichick as head coach. Tom Brady completed 4 of 6 passes to three different receivers on that drive for 58 yards but Gostkowski improves New England’s win probability by eight percent for hitting the field goal.

(7:55, 1st) Jake Elliott hits a 25-yard field goal

Eagles 3, Patriots 0, Patriots with a 55 percent win probability

The Eagles capped off a 14-play, 67-yard drive with a field goal, improving their win probability from 37 to 45 percent. Eagles quarterback Nick Foles went 6 for 9 for 61 yards, but it was Elliott’s leg that gets the credit, pushing his win-probability added to plus-8 percent, giving him an early leg up in MVP honors.

Kickoff

The Patriots are the best team until someone proves they aren’t, prompting the oddsmakers in Las Vegas to install them as a 4.5-point favorite on Super Bowl Sunday. That gives New England an implied win probability of 63 percent before kickoff. Why 63 percent? Because since 2002, the year the NFL expanded to 32 teams, teams favored by 4 to 4.5 points have a 49-25 record in the regular season and a 4-0 record in the playoffs. After adjusting for the small sample size of games, that results in a 63 percent win probability.

As the game goes on, the win probability will be updated based on scoring margin and time left in the game. We will be sure to update the live in-game win probability after every significant event of Super Bowl LII.

Not only will we know the chance each team has to win the championship game, we will also know which players should be considered for the MVP award based on the plays that swing the win probability the most. Historically, quarterbacks dominate this award, winning 28 times — four times as often as running backs (seven). According to William Hill Race and Sports Book, Brady and Foles should also be considered the favorites to win the MVP award in Super Bowl LII.

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