Economic forecasting is a tricky business and politicians are currently locked in battle over the latest official Brexit-related growth predictions.

With Leavers and Remainers falling out over the Treasury’s analysis, new research reveals which City firms have been making the right calls.

Analysis by ETX Capital shows that Morgan Stanley, Capital Economics, Commerzbank, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), Oxford Economics and PwC have made the most accurate predictions of economic trends.

The analysis was based on deviations from the out-turn from the Office for National Statistics’ data for GDP growth rate, consumer price index (CPI) inflation and the sterling index from 2015 to 2017.

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Commerzbank had the smallest average deviation over the period measured of just 0.33 percentage points from the actual CPI and GDP figures over the three years – far better than the industry average of 0.61 percentage points.

Economic forecasts have played an important political role in that period, as contentious predictions about what Brexit will do to the economy have come to the forefront. Last week government minister Steve Baker was forced to withdraw criticism of Whitehall economists over their Brexit scenario models.

During the year the vote was held Morgan Stanley enjoyed a particularly strong performance, with an average deviation of just 0.15 percentage points off the actual figures, while the industry average was 0.47 percentage points.

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