Project Fear all over again. I hadn’t intended to write again about Brexit this week, for fear that readers may be suffering from Brexit fatigue. But a story appeared last week that an as yet unpublished document authored by government economists suggests that, whatever sort of deal we get out of the EU, in 15 years’ time the UK is going to be considerably worse off. 

It is time for 12 home truths.

1. The idea that the UK civil service or, for that matter, anybody else, can confidently opine about the economy in 15 years’ time is ludicrous. 

2. This was amply borne out by the Project Fear exercise in 2016, of which this latest exercise appears to be a re-run. As I pointed out last week, in 2016, Treasury economists forecast that a vote to leave the EU would send the UK into recession. By contrast, the economy has grown well.