000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040341
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
214 UTC Sun Feb 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 05N76W to 04N81W to 05N86W to 
04N94W to 05N100W. The ITCZ continues from 05N100W to 08N118W to 
beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 08N to 16N between 116W and 128W. Scattered 
moderate convection is present from 08N to 11N between 130W and 
136W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: The pressure gradient across the region has
weakened as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico shifts E. This
has allowed gale force winds to diminish earlier this afternoon.
Residual fresh to strong northerly flow will diminish by Sun 
afternoon as the pressure gradient continues to weaken, then will
pulse back to fresh to strong in response to nocturnal drainage 
flow late Sun into early Mon, then again late Mon into early Tue 
before finally tapering off. Looking ahead, another gale force 
gap wind even may commence in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night 
in response to a strong cold front entering the Gulf of Mexico. 
This event will continue pulsing through next Fri morning.

Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are expected to run between
3 and 6 ft through Mon as a fairly tranquil pattern prevails. 
Long period NW swell will cause seas to begin building along the 
Baja Peninsula on Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fuego Volcano in Guatemala: Although a prominent hot spot 
remains evident in satellite imagery, the Volcanic Ash Advisory 
Center based in Washington, DC has discontinued advisories on 
this volcano as ash emissions are no longer being detected.

Nocturnal winds will pulse to between fresh and strong speeds 
each night over the Gulf of Papagayo through next week. Areal 
coverage of gap winds near the Gulf of Papagayo will increase 
next Thu and Fri. This will allow the area of 8 ft seas to 
propagate further downwind from the Gulf of Papagayo.

Elsewhere N of 09N, gentle to moderate offshore flow will 
prevail. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse to strong during 
overnight hours in the Gulf of Panama as well through Wed 
morning, then winds will become moderate to fresh Thu and Fri. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S
of 09N through Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge of high pressure extending SW across the NW part of the 
discussion area will persist the next several days. NW swell 
generated by a fetch of winds to the W of a nearly stationary 
frontal boundary currently well to the NW of the discussion area 
will propagate SE and generate a new area of 8 ft seas stretching
from 10N to 30N between 130W and 140W on Sun and Mon. This area
of seas will subside by Tue night and the NW swell decay.

A mix of NE and NW swell is generating an area of 8-9 ft seas 
N of the ITCZ to 12N and W of 137W. This area will slowly 
propagate W through Sun afternoon, eventually merging with the 
new set of NW swell mentioned in the previous paragraph on Sun.

$$
CAM