See the state of the race between Buchanan, Foxall and Good
President Donald Trump’s former campaign manager will soon rally GOP voters in Sarasota for Republican state House candidate James Buchanan.
Meanwhile, hundreds of small dollar contributions have been pouring in from progressive activists around the nation for Democratic candidate Margaret Good.
As both major parties try to gain momentum heading into the crucial 2018 midterm election season, a special election on Feb. 13 for the state House seat covering much of northern Sarasota County has become a major battleground, one with statewide and even national implications.
The House District 72 race is a proxy for the same political battles roiling Washington, D.C., with Trump playing a starring role in attack ads against Buchanan and Good being linked to U.S. House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi. The candidates are trading blows over hot-button national issues such as immigration and climate change.
Partisans on both sides are amped up and polling indicates the race could be extremely close, with Libertarian candidate Alison Foxall a big wildcard.
The three first-time candidates are largely aligned with the standard positions espoused by their parties, and both Buchanan and Good have focused heavily on rallying the party faithful to ensure they vote.
But each also is making efforts to appeal to independents, who make up a big portion of the district’s voters. Beyond highlighting an array of issues, they’ve attacked each other over everything from the limited number of debates in the race to their professional experience and campaign donors.
The race is being closely watched to see which way the political winds are blowing.
Unusual election
The unusual February election came about because former GOP Rep. Alex Miller unexpectedly resigned last summer, less than a year into her first two-year term.
Buchanan immediately jumped into the race, announcing his campaign the same day Miller resigned, and before Gov. Rick Scott had even called a special election to fill the seat.
District 72 leans Republican. Trump won it by 4.4 percentage points. Buchanan, a 36-year-old real estate professional, also has the advantage of name recognition, as the son of U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, and significant financial resources.
But Democrats sensed an opportunity in a political climate where the party’s voters are eager to push back against Trump and the GOP.
They recruited Good, a 41-year-old Siesta Key attorney, to run for the seat. Good has raised $350,314 between her campaign account and a political action committee, compared to $282,630 for Buchanan — who is receiving significant help from outside PACs — and $14,577 for Foxall.
The money is being used by Good and Buchanan to bludgeon each other with attack ads, while Foxall is imploring voters to reject the negative campaigning and support the third-party candidate.
Trading blows
Buchanan’s allies kicked off the attacks by going after Good in television ads and mailers over immigration. They have repeatedly hammered her as a friend of “sanctuary cities.”
“I find it very interesting my opponent being an attorney has a position where she does not want to enforce the laws in place,” Buchanan said recently during an interview at a downtown Sarasota restaurant.
Buchanan said he strongly supports legislation that cleared the Florida House this year. It would punish so-called sanctuary cities and counties that don’t fully cooperate with federal immigration authorities.
Good said in an interview at her downtown Sarasota law firm that she thinks the sanctuary city bill “is going to cost the taxpayers a lot of money to litigate it when that is not the issue the taxpayers care about.”
Good fired back with her own television ad recently saying Buchanan doesn’t believe climate change is real. But her campaign offered no evidence that Buchanan ever denied believing in climate science and the GOP candidate has called the ad “deceitful.”
“Climate change is a serious issue for Florida and the people of Sarasota County,” Buchanan said. “Protecting our shorelines and quality of life is one of my top priorities.”
Good noted that Buchanan is invested in oil companies and has received campaign contributions from sugar companies, which are often blamed for polluting the Everglades.
“I don’t see how he can take a pro-environment stance given that he has taken money from Big Oil and Big Sugar and is profiting off our environment,” she said.
Buchanan said he opposes oil drilling off the coast of Florida. The oil drilling issue is one area where Buchanan has set himself apart from some Republicans.
Buchanan also notes that it’s an area where he disagrees with Trump, whose administration announced plans to open Florida’s coasts to drilling before backtracking.
Good’s campaign has linked Buchanan and Trump in television ads and mailers. Individuals close to both campaigns say the president’s popularity has declined in the district.
“I want to see this president succeed; he’s only been in office a year,” Buchanan said recently, before adding, “I don’t agree with him on everything.”
Balancing act
Buchanan’s delicate embrace of Trump is a sign of the balancing act that candidates are trying to perform in District 72.
Republicans outnumber Democrats in the district by 12,060 voters but there are 30,510 no party affiliation voters who could swing the election.
Reflecting the district’s relatively narrow partisan divide, the last two Republicans to hold the seat both had a moderate streak. Both opposed some new restrictions on abortions, for instance.
During the Democratic primary, Good positioned herself to the center on issues such as the minimum wage, health care and marijuana. She does not support a blanket $15 minimum wage, which has become a central plank of the Democratic Party. Good’s position on the minimum wage led the Democratic Progressive Caucus of Florida to rescind its endorsement of her.
Buchanan did not have a primary and has participated in only one event with his fellow candidates, so his positions are less well known. During an interview, it sometimes was hard to pinpoint exactly where he stands. But on some issues he seems more conservative than the last two Republicans to hold the District 72 seat.
Buchanan declared that he is a “pro-life candidate” who believes in exceptions that would allow abortions in the case of rape, incest or when the life of the mother is at risk. When asked if that means he would support outlawing all abortions other than in the circumstances he described, Buchanan said he believes abortion is “something that should be between families and their minister, their pastor. It’s a deeply personal issue.”
So does that mean the government should not be involved in putting restrictions on abortions? Buchanan simply repeated that he is a “pro-life candidate” when asked that question.
Miller supported abortion rights. She also supported taking federal money set aside for Medicaid expansion in Florida under the Affordable Care Act and using it to get more people health insurance.
Former GOP Rep. Ray Pilon, who held the District 72 seat before Miller, also supported a form of Medicaid expansion.
Good favors Medicaid expansion but took heat in the primary because she did not embrace moving to a single-payer health care system.
Buchanan’s response to whether he supports expanding Medicaid in Florida: “I’d like to see us deliver better health care solutions without spending more taxpayer dollars.”
Personal attacks
One of Buchanan’s biggest assets is his last name.
But it’s also a liability, and the question of whether he is simply riding his father’s coattails is just one aspect of the candidates’ biographies that has become fodder for political attacks.
Good’s allies argue that Buchanan has few qualifications beyond being the son of a congressman.
Buchanan has praised his father while repeatedly declaring that “I’m my own man” and pointing to his own business experience as one basis for his campaign.
“James Buchanan is a small business owner, entrepreneur and Realtor,” reads one mailer that the Republican Party of Florida sent out touting the candidate. “He knows, first-hand, how hard it is to create jobs.”
Buchanan worked for Michael Saunders Real Estate before launching his own real estate business in 2009. His earnings of $22,712 from his company last year led some to question his business savvy.
“As an entrepreneur you have great years, you have years that maybe are off years, you have years that you reinvest,” Buchanan said of his business experience.
Good’s resume also has been questioned. One television ad says Good “defended allegations of fraud, negligence, Ponzi schemes and financial mismanagement” in her job with Sarasota’s Matthews Eastmoore law firm.
The ad refers to Good representing at least three attorneys who were accused of failing to represent their clients’ interests, including one lawyer who was accused of not doing due diligence in representing a client involved in a business dealing that was accused of being a Ponzi scheme.
“I advocate for clients and I do it well,” Good said in response to the attack, adding that the ad “was a gross misrepresentation of the work that I do.”
In an interview, Buchanan also pointed to Good’s work between 2006 and 2009 as the development director for The Florida Agriculture Center and Horse Park in Ocala.
“If you look at my opponent’s background she has bankrupted a horse farm in Ocala,” Buchanan said in response to questions about his own business experience. “I would tell you I do not have any bankruptcies in my background.”
The Horse Park — a multipurpose facility that hosts equestrian events and other activities — never went bankrupt and still is in operation. Multiple news accounts indicate the park has struggled financially over the years. A 2017 article in the Ocala Star Banner described “tumult” at the park after a series of firings and resignations. But the facility has received $9 million in state funding since 2013 and is the midst of an expansion.
Good described the Horse Park as a “startup nonprofit” when she joined the organization, one that went through normal growing pains.
“I feel really proud of what we accomplished,” she said of her work there. “I helped the park get up and running and then I moved on and it continued to develop.”
A third choice
As Good and Buchanan trade attacks, Foxall has tried to stay above the fray and characterize both candidates as part of a political system that fails voters.
“It’s become an election like Hillary versus Trump,” Foxall said. “It’s disappointing in so many ways.”
Foxall, 29, is a former Republican who drifted toward the Libertarian Party because of her opposition to the GOP’s positions on social issues, especially gay marriage. The Sarasota marketing executive has been active in Libertarian politics in recent years, volunteering for the party’s nominee for governor in 2014 and working on presidential candidate Gary Johnson’s campaign in 2016.
The Libertarian philosophy is commonly described as socially liberal and economically conservative, and Foxall said her views largely conform with that philosophy. She supports abortion rights and legalizing marijuana and wants to cut taxes and business regulations.
Economic issues are Foxall’s top priority. Her small business struggled initially, and Foxall partly blames a big tax bill that she wasn’t prepared for. At campaign events she talks about cutting regulations governing various occupations, which she views as barriers to competition.
Foxall faces the problem that all third-party candidates confront: Convincing voters she has a real chance to win. One recent public poll had her attracting the support of 3.2 percent of District 72 voters.
While Foxall has raised a significant amount for a third-party candidate, it is not enough for a significant amount of advertising.
“If I didn’t think was going to win I wouldn’t be running,” Foxall said in arguing she is a serious contender.
Regardless of whether she can win, Foxall’s presence could prove consequential if she pulls votes from Good or Buchanan in a close vote.
Close race
A poll released late last month had Buchanan up slightly on Good but within the survey’s margin of error.
The campaigns are making a final push to reach voters as early voting continues this week.
Buchanan is getting an assist from former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, who is headlining a GOP get-out-the-vote event next weekend at Dolphin Aviation in Sarasota.
Good has received help from progressive activists across the nation and prominent Democrats such as former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley. The 2016 presidential candidate is headlining a fundraiser for Good on Wednesday. An array of national progressive groups also have been channeling donations to Good. Individuals from California to New York have been writing checks for $20.18 and other smaller amounts to her campaign.
Both state parties also are fully engaged in the race, which is viewed as a bellwether for the 2018 election.
Despite Florida having more registered Democrats than Republicans, the state Legislature is dominated by the GOP. Democrats have long struggled to win legislative races. But the party was successful in flipping a Republican state Senate seat blue in a recent special election and is looking to make another statement in District 72. Democrats have been emboldened by victories across the country since Trump’s election, including in districts that he carried by a significant margin.
Republicans are just as eager to stop any Democratic momentum in Florida heading into the 2018 midterm election.
That means Florida’s political world will be watching closely to see what happens in Sarasota on Feb. 13.