The logistics of simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly polls

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The logistics of simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly polls

There is a lot of speculation that the Lok Sabha and Assembly Elections will be held simultaneously, but the big question is can the Lok Sabha polls be held this year? Will Prime Minister Narendra Modi be ready to go into elections six months before schedule? Not only this, can the Government possibly pull off all elections this year?

This will certainly not be an easy decision, but if the PM goes by the advice of the Niti Aayog and decides accordingly, then at the end of the year, Assembly Elections in almost a dozen States could be held along with the Lok Sabha Elections. After that, the rest of the States can go into elections in 2022. And in 2024, all elections can be held at the same time.

This is to be noted that the Assembly polls in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh are scheduled at the end of this year. Along with that, Mizoram will also face elections. The Government can think about holding the Lok Sabha Elections along with these four Assembly Elections. Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Odisha go into elections at the time of the LS polls. In April, two more NE States, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, will go into elections. If the Election Commission desires, then these five States can go into elections before schedule. Hence, there will not be any Constitutional obstacle in conducting the Lok Sabha Elections and nine Assembly Elections.

Three more States can be added to this if the BJP and PM Modi give a go-ahead. Elections in Jharkhand, Haryana, and Maharashtra are scheduled at the end of 2019. In these States, the BJP is the ruling party. These State Governments can dissolve the Assembly and go into elections. In this case, all these elections can be held along with the LS Elections. For the past few months, there has been a discussion in Bihar to go into elections along with the Lok Sabha. If the BJP and JDU agree, then the Assembly polls can be held two years earlier than schedule. If this happens, there will not be any hurdle in conducting Assembly polls in 12 States along with the LS Elections.

FOLLOWING THE SCHEDULE

What will happen if the BJP and PM Modi don’t take the decision to go into elections before schedule? Will everything go as before? That means Karnataka will go into elections in May. After that Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh, and Mizoram will face polls in November-December, and five States will go into elections along with the Lok Sabha Elections. After that, three more States will go into polls by the end of next year. That means the Assembly Elections in a dozen States and Lok Sabha polls will be held in three steps in the next two years. Some experts feel that the Lok Sabha Elections might be held as per schedule and the Assembly polls can be conducted at that time only. But for this, the Assembly polls of Rajasthan, MP, and Chhattisgarh will have to be postponed and President’s Rule would have to be imposed at least for six months. If this happens, then the path would be cleared for simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly Elections in 12 States in April-May next year. But the problem is how will the decision be taken to delay the Assembly polls in three States, and how will the Government take the endorsement for President’s Rule?

This is to be noted that the decision for President’s Rule must be ratified by Parliament within two months. There is another hurdle: The Congress is in a direct fight with the BJP in the States where elections will have to be postponed, and it will not be ready for it at any cost. This is also true that after the biennial elections of the Rajya Sabha this year, the BJP’s strength will continue to increase. However, it will not get majority on its own. Secondly, two of its big partners, the Shiv Sena and TDP, are not in favour of early elections. So, there will be a lot of hurdles in seeking ratification for President’s Rule from the Rajya Sabha. If the PM decides to take the initiative and talks to some regional leaders, probably then the matter would be different. If that doesn’t happen, then there is a greater chance that Lok Sabha polls will be held at the end of this year only and nine States will also go to polls along with that. There is one more possibility that the PM will allow the Assembly Elections to be held this year as per schedule and then go for the Lok Sabha polls along with Assembly polls for nine States.

RESTLESSNESS IN BIHAR

The MPs of almost all the NDA partners from Bihar are apparently worried. Many of them feel that they will not get tickets in the next elections, while some have become restless to change their seats. Some of them have started positioning already and are said to be in contact either with the RJD or Congress. Amongst this lot, there are MPs not only from the BJP and JDU, but also from the LJP and RLSP. Three BJP MPs might not get tickets due to anti-party activities — Shatrughan Sinha, who is MP from Patna Sahib; Kirti Azad, who is MP from Darbhanga; and Bhola Singh, MP from Begusarai. For these three seats, new contenders are being readied.

Sources say that the Darbhanga seat might go to the JDU. From Patna Sahib, Central Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad, and Rituraj Sinha, son of Rajya Sabha MP RK Sinha, are said to be the main contenders. National Secretary of the BJP, Rajnish Kumar, is trying for Begusarai. This is also being said that some other MPs from Bihar might be given a chance from Begusarai; Giriraj Singh is pressing for the same. Last time, too, he wanted to fight from Begusarai, but due to internal politics, he was forced to go to Nawada. Apart from this, the BJP will have to leave some seats for the JDU and some seats might be exchanged. Sources say that the BJP MP from Maharajganj, JS Sigriwal, might be sent somewhere else and his seat could be given to the JDU. Sigriwal might fight from Chhapra from where Rajiv Pratap Rudy is MP.  

SEAT-SHARING ARITHMETIC

In the last Lok Sabha Elections, the JDU had won only two seats, and the RLSP ie Upendra Kushwaha’s party, had got three seats. Former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi had formed his party after the Lok Sabha Elections, so he doesn’t have any MP. Now, these three parties of the NDA alliance are facing a big crisis of seats. It is being said that the BJP’s National General Secretary (Organisation), Ram Lal, has told Nitish Kumar that the BJP can leave only those eight seats for the JDU on which the NDA partners had not fought in the last elections. 

But Nitish isn’t too comfortable with these seats as most of them are Muslim dominated. That is why the JDU leaders don’t want more seats but want such seats where they can put up a good fight. For this, the JDU will have to exchange its seats with other partners of the NDA. So, there is speculation that the JDU might exchange its seats with the LJP and BJP. But before that, there will be a good fight over the number of seats.

The Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM) — the political outfit of Manjhi, which had joined the NDA during the last Assembly Elections — doesn’t have any MP right now. But leaders of his party are taking responsibility for two or three seats. If Manjhi continues with the NDA till the elections, then some of the seats will be left for him also. Leaders of the HAM are eyeing Gaya, Maharajganj, and Vaishali. Apart from Manjhi, Mahachandra Prasad and Vrishan Patel also want to fight.

There are some issues within the RLSP, too. The last time, the party had got three seats and won all. Now, Arun Kumar, MP from Jehanabad and State president of the RLSP, has parted ways with the party. This is not clear whether he would go with the BJP or JDU or form his own party, but this is almost clear that this time, one seat of the RLSP will be cut.