Insta-reaction to recent developments on the court and off the field …
1. Prospects, pursuers and predictions.
We’re deep into the home stretch for the February signing period and most of the top players on the west coast are either bound or committed to teams.
But there’s a third bucket of prospects: Unsigned, uncommitted and deeply coveted.
With an eye on Wednesday, we present the top-five uncommitted prospects in the Pac-12 footprint according to 247sports’ composite national rankings.
CB Olaijah Griffin
Mission Viejo
Ranking: 28
Schools: USC, Tennessee, Oregon, Alabama
Hotline prediction: USC
CB Isaac Taylor-Stuart
San Diego
Ranking: 32
Schools: Alabama, Texas A&M, Tennessee, USC
Hotline prediction: Alabama
WR Devon Williams
Lancaster, Cal.
Ranking: 40
Schools: Oregon, USC, Utah, Alabama
Hotline prediction: USC
QB Tanner McKee
Corona
Ranking: 46
Schools: Alabama, Stanford, Texas, Texas A&M and Washington
Hotline prediction: Stanford
OG Penei Sewell
Saint George, Utah
Ranking: 57
Schools: Alabama, Oregon, USC, Utah
Hotline prediction: Oregon
2. And the Huskies make two.
The Pac-12, it now appears, will have at least two teams in the NCAA tournament.
Arizona is in, for sure. And barring what would be a substantial collapse, Washington can be considered safe following its dramatic victory over the Wildcats on Saturday night.
Nobody else in the conference is on the right side of the bubble.
Arizona State and USC are the best of the rest and have work remaining to secure at-large bids (USC to a greater extent than ASU).
Why the confidence in the Huskies’ case? Because they have four Quadrant 1 victories, which are defined as:
Home wins over top-30 opponents
Neutral court wins over top-50 opponents
Road wins over top-75 opponents
UW’s Q1 wins are as follows: Kansas, USC and Colorado on the road, and Arizona at home.
The Huskies also have no bad losses, a limited number of bad wins (over RPI 200+) and a solid non-conference strength-of-schedule.
In fact, they’ve reached the point in which avoiding bad losses is as important as collecting quality wins.
3. The SEC reports: Cha-ching.
Hotline readers might have missed the news Thursday that the SEC went public with its tax filings for the 2017 fiscal year.
The average payout per school was $41 million, which was, admittedly, a tad lower than Hotline projections. (The payouts ranged from $43 million to $40 million, per USA Today.)
That figure is expected to be approximately $10 million more than the Pac-12’s per-school average, but we won’t know for sure until the conference releases its 990s in May.
Look for figures from the Big 12 and Big Ten in the coming months, with the Pac-12 trailing both (perhaps substantially).
We’ll continue to keep a running tally, just as we have done for years. The money matters, every dime, on the campuses and can bolster recruiting budgets, coaching staff salaries, scheduling options, debt service and so much more.
4. UCLA closes ground on the trail.
It was immediate clear that Chip Kelly’s short-term recruiting plan had a long-game lean.
Kelly took control in Westwood less than one month before the December signing period and promptly locked up as many prospects as possible to stabilize the program. Err …
Actually, he did the opposite, evaluating recruits to determine which would fit his system and signing a class so small (eight) that it prompted a raised eyebrow or slight skepticism from certain corners.
But Kelly was placing max value on every scholarship and taking advantage of the clout that comes with his resume: He could afford to assemble the class at his pace, immune to external pressure.
That patience is paying immense dividends. The Bruins have received 12 commitments since December, several from prospects who are among the most coveted at their positions in the west.
The latest to join is Tyler Manoa, a 4-star defensive tackle from the Bay Area.
Add Manoa to a group that includes 4-star end Elijah Wade and JC transfer Steven Mason, and Kelly secured his defensive line of the very near future in just the past week.
Good thing he had those scholarships available.
5. Devil in the details, or the business model?
The Hotline addressed Arizona State coach Bobby Hurley’s new contract in the Thursday stock report and concluded it was a whopper of a raise given Hurley’s modest accomplishments.
The item encountered stiff resistance from a trusted contact. That sort of thing happens occasionally and usually means I failed to provide proper context. So let’s dive back in …
As noted originally, Hurley’s base pay from Arizona State is more than luminaries like Roy Williams and Mark Few receive from their schools and substantially more than proven winners like Xavier’s Chris Mack and Miami’s Jim Larranaga, as well.
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The best of the best also receive huge sums from shoe companies or their schools’ fundraising arm. But the calculation is different with others, including USC’s Andy Enfield, who has a more impressive resume that Hurley but will earn less in base comp when Hurley’s raise kicks in.
Hurley has raised ASU’s profile and increased attendance. But he hasn’t won anything and has no current job offers to use as leverage. Yet the Sun Devils chose to pay him like a coach with multiple Sweet 16 appearances and a job offer on the table.
That is their right, for sure. But it sheds light on the school’s approach to business — a model that is not shared by many other Pac-12 schools.
(Recall when Todd Graham was fired and athletic director Ray Anderson said of the $12 million buyout, “That’s on me,” as if it were a $47 IOU.)
Agree or disagree with ASU’s approach — reasonable arguments can be made either way.
But documenting the situation, with content, is instructive to Hotline readers as we continue the neverending quest to fill in the financial pixels across the conference.
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