When it comes to long-range winter forecasts, you may be inclined to listen more closely to trained meteorologists than a supposedly ancient groundhog who communicates solely through his PR team.
But this year, not even the professionals agree on whether there will indeed be six more weeks of winter.
Whether the National Weather Service in Moon Township agrees with Punxsutawney Phil depends on the interpretation of his shadow-spotting and what's meant by "six more weeks of winter." Meteorologist John Darnley said the six weeks from the technical end of winter, March 20, will be warmer and wetter than usual.
"He's calling for 'six more weeks,' and we're calling for temperatures to be slightly above normal for March-April-May, and precipitation slightly above normal for a warmer, wetter start to spring," Darnley said.
Based on the U.S. national average temperature, Punxsutawney Phil's predictions have been 50 percent accurate over the last 10 years, the weather service said.
Darnley said the breakup of La Nina — the cooler portion of a cyclical pattern of sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean — should allow warmer air to flow back into the region from the Gulf of Mexico toward late April and early May.
"Right now, we're influenced more by the cold air from Canada and the Great Lakes, but that will switch," he said.
Max Vido, a long-range forecaster at State College-based AccuWeather, has predictions that fell more in line with Phil: La Nina's breakdown would have less effect than the shifting Polar Vortex, which Vido said would keep the area colder for a while.
"You're going to have more cold bouts. ... Winter does look like it's going to hang on," Vido said.
AccuWeather looks to March 1 as the time when weather typically starts to shift from winter to spring, but Vido said the Pittsburgh region could expect light to moderate snow past that date.
"I see that persisting on the chillier side well into April," he said. "It's a year when we could see a couple snow events in March. ... A bleak beginning to spring."
Both agencies agreed that winter will remain in the short term, with Darnley noting that Pittsburgh could get more snow this Sunday with cold temperatures lingering at or below freezing until next Thursday.
"There's still a lot of cold weather out there before we get to March-April-May," he said.