(This story first was published Friday, Feb. 2, 2018.)

MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC Fight Night 125’s bouts. Today, we look at betting and fantasy options for the card.

UFC Fight Night 125 takes place today at Mangueirinho Gymnasium in Belem, Para, Brazil. The card airs on FS1 following early prelims on UFC Fight Pass.

ALSO SEE:

• UFC-Belem main-event breakdown: Youth or experience with Eryk Anders vs. Lyoto Machida?
• UFC-Belem co-main event breakdown: John Dodson vs. Pedro Munhoz
• UFC-Belem main-card breakdown: How Valentina Shevchenko stacks up vs. first flyweight foe

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Disclaimer: The following section is designed for entertainment purposes only. The unit sizes serve as a rough representation of the percentage of bankroll risked, as well as my confidence in said plays. If you intend on gambling, I suggest you do so responsibly and legally, since it is at your own risk. All lines are drawn from 5Dimes.eu on Feb. 2, 2018.

Dan’s plays

Playable parlay pieces (my most confident favorites):

• Eryk Anders (-300)
• Michel Prazeres/Desmond Green “over 2.5 rounds” (-235)

Summary: My recommended parlay pieces are typically my most confident picks (within a reasonable price range) that could serve as potential legs for whatever play you’re trying to put together.

With some of the more obvious choices being overpriced or inflated out of range, I elected to go with Eryk Anders (10-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC), who faces Lyoto Machida (22-8 MMA, 14-8 UFC).

As stated in my main event breakdown, this could be a bad time for Machida to have this matchup. In Machida’s prime, Anders’ aggression and inherent rawness would have played right into the Brazilian’s hands.

But now, after being knocked out by three southpaws in the winter of his career, I’m just not sure if the juice of fighting at home is worth the squeeze. My fandom for Machida aside, this is one of the matchups I am confident about making a call on.

My next parlay piece is an over.

Given the limited selection of reasonable chalk, I ended up taking a total I liked on this card. I elected to go with Michel Prazeres/Desmond Green “Over 2.5 rounds” (-235).

Not only do both fighters have a history of going the distance, but I think they also have styles that naturally will stymy the other. As I detail in my main-card breakdown, Green is a deceptively effective defensive fighter both standing and on the feet, a factor that could make it difficult for Prazeres to get his ground game going.

Each fighter also demonstrates the ability to take hard shots standing, as well as survive scary situations on the canvas. With this being an important fight for both of their careers, I’m willing to bet we will see a measured approach for the majority of this contest.

Straight plays:

• Damir Hadzovic +210 (1 unit)

Summary: For my straight plays, I typically like to look for fighters – from underdogs to reasonable favorites – who I think have a solid chance and price tag.

Considering that this card is rich in high-intangible matchups and firefights, I decided to put my money on one of my favorite underdogs of 2017 by going with Damir Hadzovic (11-3 MMA, 1-1 UFC), who faces Alan Patrick (14-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC).

Patrick is a solid fighter who deserves to be the favorite – but I’m not sure by that much. I’ve been a fan of Hadzovic’s style since seeing him perform at shows like Cage Warriors, and think he has been criminally underrated by oddsmakers thus far.

Despite being caught by one of the best in Mairbek Taisumov, Hadzovic has shown to be durable throughout his career. Stalking with a Terminator-like quality, Hadzovic does well at keeping his feet underneath him when throwing his power, often punctuating his presence with springing knees up the center.

As we saw in Hadzovic’s last fight, these types of tactics come in handy when facing fighters who want to take him down – and that’s likely what Patrick will want to do here.

A man who went from a homeless beggar to Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, it’s hard not to like Patrick. And though I could see Patrick edging out rounds through stanzas of ground control, I’m not sure he will be able to get Hadzovic down with ease.

The Bosnian fighter has underrated takedown defense and strikes viciously off of the breaks. If Patrick hangs out in the clinch for too long or is forced to stand and trade, then I think Hadzovic will find the knockout. For that reason, I’m willing put my money where my mouth is here.

• Marlon Vera “Inside the distance” +344 (0.5 unit)

Summary:

For my lone prop play, I decided to take a shot on Marlon Vera (10-4-1 MMA, 4-3 UFC), who faces Douglas Silva de Andrade (24-2 MMA, 2-2 UFC), to get things done inside the distance.

Vera, the projected favorite, is getting slightly steeper odds than expected for a result that I highly favor happening. Although we recently saw Vera come up short in a similar stylistic matchup against John Lineker, Silva de Andrade is not at the same level as Lineker – something Rob Font proved when he fought the same progression of opponents.

Still, you can’t rely on MMA math. Silva de Andrade is a dangerous striker who can come forward or counter with effect, and Vera will need to respect what’s coming back his way. That said, Vera has a durable chin to go with his length and movement advantage, something I see being key in this matchup.

Not only has Vera been getting technically better under the tutelage of Colin Oyama and his ever-growing camp, but his recent analysis duties for the UFC’s Spanish broadcast team has seemed to light a fire under his mental game. Ultimately, I see Vera’s pace and pressure opening up an opportunity to finish the fight on the mat – an area I think he will have a sizeable advantage within. And for the price of +344, I’ll take a sprinkle.

Fights to avoid (live dogs, high intangibles, etc.):

• Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Joseph Morales
• Thiago Santos vs. Anthony Smith
• John Dodson vs. Pedro Munhoz