000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030858
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
711 UTC Sat Feb 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong high pressure ridge 
along the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains of Mexico is 
maintaining a strong pressure gradient over the Isthmus of 
Tehuantepec. The pressure gradient will be strong enough to 
generate gales of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon until 
18Z. From this evening through Mon, the high pressure ridge over 
the western Gulf of Mexico will shift E and allow winds over the 
Gulf to decrease to strong tonight and then to light and variable
Sun night. The next gap wind event is slated for Mon morning 
through Tue afternoon, but winds are only expected to peak at 
strong speeds. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas 
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more 
details.

EASTERN PACIFIC ASHFALL ADVISORY:
Fuego Volcano at 14.5N 90.9W over S Guatemala is erupting.
Volcanic ash may be reaching the surface W of the volcano to near
the coast of Guatemala N of 13.5N between 91W and 92W. Low level
visibility may be reduced to 1 NM. Mariners should exercise
caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash...they are 
encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather 
Service by calling 305-229-4425. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N80W to 05N93W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N93W to 05N98W TO 08N109W to 09N114W, then 
resumes from 08N119W to 08W130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 10N to 
14N between 118W and 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please refer to special features section 
for more information on the next gale force gap wind event. 

Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are expected to remain at 
4 to 6 ft through Mon as a fairly tranquil pattern prevails. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fuego Volcano in Guatemala: Please refer to special features 
section for more information on this ongoing volcanic eruption.

Nocturnal winds will pulse to between fresh and strong speeds each
night over the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri night. Areal coverage
of gap winds near the Gulf of Papagayo will increase Thu and Fri.
This will allow the area of 8 ft seas downwind from the Gulf of
papagayo to combine with the area of 8 ft seas downwind from the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere N of 09N, gentle to moderate 
offshore flow will prevail. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse to
strong during overnight hours in the Gulf of Panama as well 
through Wed night. Elsewhere, light to gentle S to SW winds will
generally prevail S of 09N through the middle of next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A mix of NE and NW swell is generating an area of 8 ft seas 
located from 09N to 12N between 125W and 132W. This area will 
slowly propagate W through Sun afternoon. Another pulse of NE 
swell generated by the current Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event
will cause seas to build to 8 ft as it propagates across the 
waters S of 14N and E of 100W, then seas will fall below 8 ft by 
Sun afternoon as the swell decay. Elsewhere, a ridge of high 
pressure extending SW across the NW part of the discussion area 
will persist the next several days. NW swell generated by a fetch
of winds to the W of a nearly stationary frontal boundary 
currently well to the NW of the discussion area will propagate E 
and generate a new area of 8 ft seas stretching from 10N to 30N 
between 130W and 140W on Sun and Mon.

$$
CAM