BLOOMINGTON, Minn. – New England might blow out Philadelphia in Super Bowl LII. Or vice versa. Crazy stuff happens, especially in over-hype’s annual No. 1 showcase.
As much as any Super Bowl in recent memory, however, this game’s a coin toss. Both went 13-3 in the regular season. Both had their hiccups down the stretch, for different reasons. Both have their vulnerabilities.
It’s easy to make an argument for either team to win on Sunday. So read on.
Five reasons New England will win:
- A guy named Brady
Tom Brady led the Patriots to three Super Bowl victories before anybody on the Eagles not named (punter) Donnie Jones had even entered the NFL. Better than any NFLer ever, Brady knows how to shine on this bright-light stage. It’s his eighth Super Bowl, for crying out loud. And if you think this is the first time he’s faced a scary pass rush, see Falcons, Atlanta, one year ago. Or Jaguars, Jacksonville, two weeks ago.
- Hoody McGrumpypants
The curmudgeonly won’t ever win the Miss Manners Award for sports coaches, but so what? Bill Belichick is pro football’s best coach ever because he relentlessly drills all the little things into his players that can swing a big, close game. The largest margin of victory in New England’s five Super Bowl wins under his tutelage? Six points. Three wins were sealed in the last minute. One – last year’s – went past that, to overtime.
- Nick Foles
You really think Nick Foles – Nick Friggin’ Foles – is going to out-duel Brady in a Super Bowl? When up until a few weeks ago Foles actually was pitied, after second-year phenom Carson Wentz’s season-ending injury? This is the first playoff game away from home Foles has ever played in. The last QB (of four) who won a Super Bowl without having played in a road playoff game was Kurt Warner in 1999.
- Matchup problems for the Eagles
After QB, the biggest mismatch in this game favouring the Pats also is in the pass game. The Eagles aren’t good at covering tight ends, and the Patriots have maybe the NFL’s best in Rob Gronkowski. Also, according to ProFootballFocus.com, one of Philly’s two starting cornerbacks, Jalen Mills, is glaringly slow and double-move vulnerable. Will the Eagles always have their much faster starting corner, Ronald Darby, cover blazing-fast Patriots wideout Brandin Cooks? They’d better.
- Experience
Kind of an important factor: the Patriots are the defending Super Bowl champions, and most of last year’s team is back. All week here, Patriots players acted not arrogantly, or over-confidently, but rather as an ensemble exuding a relaxed focus, as though for them this is just another big game, ones they’ve been playing, and winning, for years. They know they can fall behind even by 25 points and still win. In a word, unflappable.
Five reasons Philadelphia will win:
- That great, deep defensive line
You’ve read about ’em all week. Indeed, Philly’s defenders, especially the front four, are the real deal who deserve all the ink they’ve gotten. In Jim Schwartz’s attacking scheme, the Eagles line is so adept at causing four quarters worth of backfield disruption as to compel Philly to blitz with a fifth or sixth pass rusher fewer than any other team. Meaning Brady will face seven Eagles in pass coverage most of the time.
- NFL’s best run defence
Philly’s even better at stopping the run. The Eagles led the NFL in surrendering just 79 yards a game. Atlanta and Minnesota had to run it well but neither could in playoff losses, amassing 70 and 86 yards, respectively. Chicago totalled six yards in Week 12. Not that New England’s coaches care if they have to mostly pass. But if they can’t provide some semblance of a run threat, Philly’s pass rush becomes even more lethal.
- Nick Foles
Expecting him to flop? Well, know that in three career playoff games with the Eagles (a late-game loss to New Orleans in 2013, and two wins in January) he has absolutely sparkled. Foles is the only player in NFL history to record a 100+ passer rating in his first three post-season games. If you saw the NFC title game, you know he’s capable of performing at a high level in No. 4, another enormous-stakes game.
- Receivers able to burn the Pats secondary
The Eagles signing free-agent wideout Alshon Jeffery proved one of the best acquisitions in the NFL last off-season, and not just because of his two dynamic TD catches in the NFC title game. Jeffery’s presence has allowed Nelson Agholor to flourish now too, and speedster Torrey Smith stretches defences. The Pats’ secondary is average at best between the 20s, and one of these receivers – plus tight end Zach Ertz – could have a big game.
- So much more to prove
Sure, Belichick, Brady and all those uber-competitive Patriots want to win another Super Bowl. But their place in NFL history as one of the league’s great dynasties is secure, even with a loss on Sunday. But the Philadelphia Eagles have never won a Super Bowl. Eagles coaches and players all week made it clear they have a burning desire to reward the championship-starved City of Brotherly Love with a Super Bowl title.
@JohnKryk
