Whether rainy or icy, the weather on Super Bowl Sunday looks like a mess. The storm is well-timed for a region where severe drought was just declared, but we’re seeing a slight chance of ice, which would affect the roads.
We think this is going to be mostly rain, but there’s a slight chance of sleet or freezing rain in some areas if temperatures remain at or below freezing. The most likely places to see wintry mix are north and west of the Beltway, between midmorning and early afternoon. By late afternoon, plain rain should be falling in most areas outside of the mountains, although temperatures may not climb much above 32 degrees.
Particularly in northern Montgomery, Loudoun, Howard and Frederick counties, there’s a chance the cold air will stay in place, which could lead to marginally icy conditions. That’s something to keep in mind as you’re making plans to get on the road.
Around the Beltway and to the south and east, ice is less likely to be an issue. The rain may briefly begin as an icy mix, if it comes in early enough Sunday before temperatures rise. But temperatures both near the ground and higher up are predicted to rise, so any snowflakes or icy precipitation (sleet and freezing rain) should transition to rain in most areas.
We don’t think this storm is a reason to cancel any plans at this point. We will be covering the storm here on the blog and on social media on Sunday, and we will keep you posted on temperatures and road conditions.
Read on for more forecast details.
High-resolution NAM model suggests temperatures may still hover near freezing north and west of the Beltway early Sunday afternoon.
The high-resolution NAM model shows temperatures barely above freezing in the late afternoon north and west of the Beltway.
We know this isn’t going to be a snowstorm, because the configuration is not right for that to happen in the D.C. region.
“Having a high-pressure system off the coast and the lowest pressure to our northwest sets up a situation where the winds at all levels are either from the south or southwest,” says Wes Junker, Capital Weather Gang’s winter-weather expert. “The deep southerly winds will quickly sweep warmer air northward into our area. For example, the temperatures aloft over D.C. are forecast to reach 36 degrees by 10 a.m. and 40 degrees by 1 p.m.”
Even so, enough cold air may linger near the ground for a bit of slipperiness in our normally colder areas.
Rain potential
Rain (or freezing rain in our colder areas) should fall for much of Sunday afternoon before tapering off between about 6 and 10 p.m. Models generally predict between 0.25 and 0.75 inches of rain, with the heaviest amounts generally east of Interstate 95.
This isn’t a ton of rain, but it would be more than we’ve seen for a while and would take a small bite out of our 9-plus-inch deficit since September.
This storm follows the second of two predictable patterns this winter in Washington, which have snow lovers in a fit:
- When cold air has become firmly established, moisture has been scarce whenever storm systems come through. The result? Dustings.
- When moisture has become more abundant, cold air has eroded whenever storms move in. The result? Mostly rain and/or a wintry mix.