Chapel Hill, N.C. — Late in Tuesday’s game at Clemson, Carolina completed a comeback from a 16-point halftime deficit with a Joel Berry jumper. The score was tied at 74. But on the next Tigers possession, the Tar Heels lost Marcquise Reed, who unleashed a three-pointer from the wing.
The shot was good before it left Reed’s hand. Of course it was. It was the 15th made three-pointer by the Tigers on a night when they shot 30. Clemson would go on to beat Carolina for the first time in eight years, and just the second time in the last 22 games between the teams.
It was a good night for Clemson and Brad Brownell, who got a signature Top 20 win to add to their résumé. It was a bad night and indicative of a worsening trend for Roy Williams and the Tar Heels.
This season, teams are hitting 38.5 percent of their three-point field goal attempts against the Tar Heels. To put that another way, for one night, a Carolina opponent essentially becomes a Top 15 three-point shooting team (among major conference teams).
Tuesday evening, the Clemson Tigers boosted their season three-point percentage mark by nearly a full point in shooting 50 percent against the Tar Heels. NC State also made 15 of their 30 attempts. Virginia Tech made 12 of their 30 tries.
During this three-game losing streak, Carolina has allowed opponents to make nearly 47 percent from behind the arc. By itself, that number would rank in the top quarter of teams nationally in total field goal percentage, not just threes.
What is the problem? It all goes back to Carolina’s lack of post depth. Beyond Luke Maye, who is a credible but not outstanding defender, the Tar Heels have no post player that they yet trust to defend one-on-one. Sterling Manley and Garrison Brooks will get there, sure, but presently the Tar Heels find themselves over-helping from the perimeter to defend bigger players down low.
When Kenny Williams slips down to help defend, his man is open on the wing. Wide open. And opponents don’t hesitate from beyond the arc - nationally, only two teams have allowed more three-point attempts than the Tar Heels. With the perimeter defenders caught in no-man’s land and the Carolina size not at all imposing, opponents are willing to take a shot from deep. Clemson rebounded 15 of their own misses on Tuesday, including a key board with under a minute to go.
The size and experience problem crops up on the offensive end as well, of course. Larger opponents are content to crowd the lane, discouraging entry passes and encouraging three-point attempts. That has worked, too. These Tar Heels seem to prefer shooting from deep to attempting to run a half-court offense.
Against Clemson on Tuesday, they ran the play where the guy comes off a screen to shoot a three about 1,000 times (unofficially). If it wasn’t that, it was Joel Berry gamely going isolation to try to will his team back into the game.
So, what’s the solution? It’s tough. Carolina does not have Isaiah Hicks, Kennedy Meeks or Tony Bradley on its roster. But there’s a reason that Sterling Manley and Garrison Brooks earned scholarships, and the Tar Heels —Roy Williams included—have to learn to let the young players grow up.
The more experienced players have to stop over-helping and leaving shooters open. If that means Brooks and Manley give up a bucket, so be it. Let them take their lumps. Let them get beat on defense a handful of times. Trust that they will learn from their mistakes and be better the next time.
The same thing applies on offense. Brooks and Manley will never be legitimate offensive threats if they are not given the chance to score. Williams and the Tar Heels want to run, and the preference will always be to score in transition. But there has to be a half-court offense beyond screening for a three or Berry in isolation.
At this point, what do the Tar Heels have to lose? Let the young kids grow up. Trust that they’ll do so.