SWING AND A MISS: You won’t see any mention of yesterday’s failed test of a new interceptor missile on the Missile Defense Agency’s website, which lists the results of every other test of the Aegis system since 2002. CNN, which was first to report that the Standard Missile-3 missed a target missile, quoted officials saying the secrecy surrounding the test was to avoid fanning tension with North Korea, as the Winter Olympic Games are about to begin. The Missile Defense Agency did not respond to an email from the Washington Examiner, but CNN quoted spokesman Mark Wright as confirming a test took place at the Pacific Missile Range Facility on Kauai, Hawaii.
The test was the first of the Aegis Ashore system, basically a land-based version of the Aegis system in place on U.S. destroyers and cruisers. It’s what the USS John Paul Jones used to shoot down a target missile in August. Aegis Ashore is part of the midcourse layer of U.S. missile defense, and is designed to defeat short to intermediate-range missiles. It is due to be deployed soon in Poland, and eventually in Japan, which has helped in the development of the SM-3 Block IIA interceptor.
LEARNING FROM FAILURE: In the latest Star Wars movie, Jedi master Yoda appears from nowhere at one point to chide Luke Skywalker, who’s feeling sorry for himself for his failures. "The greatest teacher, failure is,” Yoda says to buck up the dejected Skywalker. Riki Ellison, the indefatigable chairman of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, seems to channeling Yoda in his analysis of the yesterday’s failure to intercept, headlined, “Success Teaches Us Nothing, Only Failure Teaches.”
“We need to dig in, fix the issues quickly, and re-test quickly as our country has [done] with its missile systems in the past, under nuclear proliferation of the Soviet Union,” Ellison writes. “Missile defense is a critical component of enabling maximum pressure on North Korea and the new Aegis Ashore and Aegis Afloat combined with the SM-3 Block IIA weapon system is a considerable asset for this pressure.”
And Ellison pointed to the Yoda-like wisdom of another Star Wars fan, Deputy Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan. “I'm a proponent of failing — failing fast, learning quickly,” Shanahan said at his Senate confirmation hearing last June. “I think, the faster you do that, the more we end up training people. It's not about the technology; it's about our people learning how to develop the technology because they know how the users can apply it.”
MISSILE REVIEW DUE: The disappointing Aegis Ashore test comes as the Pentagon is about to release its Ballistic Missile Defense Review late this month or early next month. It will outline the Trump strategy to strengthen the nation’s multi-layered missile shield with more interceptors and accelerated testing and deployments (see new Boeing contract below). But first comes the Nuclear Posture review, set for release tomorrow afternoon. “The Ballistic Missile Defense Review is, in some cases, derivative of the work in the Nuclear Posture Review,” Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Paul Selva told reporters this week. “So it was necessary that we put a little bit of a firebreak between the two studies being released.”
Selva insists the NPR is not a “sea change” from prior reviews, and that the version that comes tomorrow “is largely consistent with our thinking about nuclear deterrence going back 70 years.” He said the idea that the U.S. might respond to a cyber attack with a nuclear weapon is “not supported by the document.”
But Selva says the U.S. reserves the right to “first use,” even though you don’t see those exact words in the document. “We reserve the right to use nuclear weapons when our national interests, our population, our infrastructure, are attacked, with significant consequence,” Selva said. “That’s essentially the phrase that’s been in our nuclear strategy, in our nuclear-posture statements, for a couple of decades.”
WHAT THE GENERAL MEANT TO SAY: Pentagon sources tell me that Selva was a little concerned that his comments to a Defense Writers Group breakfast might be misconstrued as ruling out a first strike against North Korea, which is the president’s call, not his. Asked by reporters Tuesday about the U.S. ability to take out North Korea’s missiles, Selva said, “We don’t do preemption, right? So our method of warfare, if they launch one, then game on. But preemption is not something we do as a matter of course.”
“He fully understands and appreciates that the president would make that decision,” one official told me. “We don't rule anything out. Again, that is not a military decision.”
Selva said if North Korea fires first, and it’s “game on” as he says, then the U.S. is in position to take out the bulk of the North’s nuclear sites. “I have confidence we can get at most of his infrastructure. I can’t give you a characterization of the confidence on the number or percentage of missiles we would get. But remember, missile infrastructure is not just the missiles. So if you’re the poor sergeant that has to go out and launch the missile and I blow up your barracks, you’re not available to go do your job,” Selva said.
“If you’re watching and you see all the missiles deploy and he launches the first one, then he has started the fight, and all the other ones are legitimate targets,” Selva said, making clear that he was not foreclosing any option. “This is why I won’t rule in or rule out preemption, because it’s contextual.”
NPR LEAK NOT A CRIME: Selva did misspeak about one aspect of the leaked predecisional draft of the Nuclear Posture Review that was published by the Huffington Post. Selva told reporters that the person who leaked it committed a crime. When I contacted his spokesman, Maj. Will Powell, he admitted that was a mistake.
“Previous drafts of the NPR did have a higher classification, which would have made it a crime to release publicly. General Selva was referring to that version when he spoke about the leaked NPR draft,” Powell told me in an email. “Although the actual leaked version was designated ‘Unclassified/For Official Use Only, Predecisional, Not Subject to FOIA,’ and not legally a crime to release publicly, it nevertheless was highly inappropriate for a pre-decisional draft copy to be released.”
Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
WORLD’S LARGEST SCIF: Among the fun facts to know about the Pentagon is that it is the world largest government office building, twice the size of the Merchandise Mart in Chicago, and with three times the floor space of the Empire State Building. But it could soon have another claim to fame: The world’s largest SCIF, or Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility. SCIFs are rooms or areas that are protected from spying and eavesdropping and are cell phone and recording device-free areas.
In the wake of the embarrassing revelation that fitness apps and wearable electronics may have compromised the locations of U.S military facility overseas, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has ordered a security review that could result in a total ban on mobile phones in the building where some 23,000 people work, our sources say. Phones are already restricted in some areas, such as various SCIFs throughout the building, including the Joint Chiefs’ secure briefing room known as “The Tank.”
But DoD officials tell our Travis Tritten that while a blanket cell phone ban is one option, no decisions have been made and it’s possible any new restrictions would simply expand the areas in the Pentagon where cell phone use is already prohibited. A total ban would have a major impact on Pentagon personnel, who can be seen daily gathering around entrances, windows and in the center courtyard to get a signal on their mobile devices. These days people rely on phones for everything from getting emergency text messages from their children's schools, to using the phone for two-factor security validation, to making purchases at the many business and restaurants that dot the building’s 17.5 miles of corridor.
The Pentagon would neither confirm nor deny that Mattis is considering the new phone restrictions (the same standard by the way for responding to questions about the location of nuclear weapons), issuing a noncommittal statement that provided no assurance. “DOD is always assessing security threats and will implement the necessary measures to further enhance our information technology infrastructure and prevent the compromise of sensitive or classified information,” said Col. Rob Manning, a Pentagon spokesman said.
EARNINGS WATCH: Boeing posted its earnings yesterday, which included a record number of aircraft sales and a boost from the tax reforms passed by Congress. Its defense business had $50 billion in orders last year, with 40 percent of those from international customers, and delivered 42 aircraft and one satellite, CNBC reported. “Production problems in the third quarter had racked up $329 million in costs for the KC-46 tanker program but Boeing says it plans to deliver the first 18 aircraft to the Air Force this year,” the financial news site reported. Boeing stock closed at a record high $354.37, up almost 5 percent for the day.
Meanwhile, Textron’s earnings missed Wall Street estimates, Reuters reported. The miss was due to higher research and development costs. Textron owns Bell Helicopter, which is developing the next-generation tilt-rotor V-280 Valor. The Osprey-like aircraft performed its first flight in December and is seen as a potential replacement for the Army’s ubiquitous UH-60 Black Hawk.
BIG CONTRACT: Speaking of Boeing, Reuters reports the firm won a $6.56 billion contract for its ground-based midcourse anti-ballistic missile system. “The Pentagon said the contract accelerates ‘delivery of a new missile field with 20 additional silos and two additional silos in a previously constructed missile field at Fort Greely, Alaska.’ The contract runs through December 2023.”
HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Rex Tillerson departs on a week-long Latin American trip that begins with a stop in Austin, Texas, and then takes him to Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Colombia and Jamaica. “The Secretary will engage with regional partners to promote a safe, prosperous, energy secure, and democratic hemisphere,” said a State Department statement.
Also, Mattis welcomes Secretary of State for Defence Gavin Williamson of the United Kingdom, to the Pentagon at 1:30 p.m. on the steps of the River Entrance.
Plus, the regular Thursday briefing with chief spokesperson Dana White and Joint Staff Director Lt. Gen Kenneth McKenzie will be held at noon.
CNO AT HERITAGE: Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson will discuss rebuilding the Navy during an 11 a.m. event at the Heritage Foundation. The discussion hosted by Heritage senior fellow Thomas Callender will likely cover the effects of stopgap budgets on the service, the at-sea collisions and aircraft incidents that claimed the lives of 20 sailors, and the effort to build a 355-ship fleet.
CHA FALLOUT: Democratic Sen. Tammy Duckworth last night criticized the president’s decision to no longer pursue former Bush adviser Victor Cha for U.S. ambassador to South Korea as a “troubling development” and a “setback for diplomacy.”
The Washington Post reported Tuesday Cha was dropped as a potential candidate for the ambassadorship after disagreements with the administration’s policy on North Korea were raised privately. Cha objected to the National Security Council’s consideration of a limited strike on North Korea meant to send a message without sparking a war, also known as a “bloody nose” strategy.
“This is yet another reason for every American to worry,” Duckworth, of Illinois, said in a statement to the Washington Examiner. “If this report is true and we’ve truly reached a point where opposing unprovoked armed conflict is a disqualifier from serving as Ambassador … this represents a troubling development and setback for diplomacy.”
SYRIA REFUGEES PROTECTED: The Department of Homeland Security says it will extend Temporary Protected Status for approximately 7,000 Syrian refugees for 18 months. A statement said Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen determined that the ongoing armed conflict and extraordinary conditions support the decision.
“After carefully considering conditions on the ground, I have determined that it is necessary to extend the Temporary Protected Status designation for Syria,” Nielsen said. “It is clear that the conditions upon which Syria’s designation was based continue to exist, therefore an extension is warranted under the statute. We will continue to determine each country’s TPS status on a country-by-country basis.”
KELLY ON ‘DUMB SHITS’ TEACHER: White House Chief of Staff John Kelly had some strong words for the California high school teacher who was caught on film calling U.S. troops “a bunch of dumb shits” and the “lowest of the low” in a viral video. “Well, I think the guy ought to go to hell. I just hope he enjoys the liberties and the lifestyle that we have fought for,” Kelly, a retired Marine Corps general who enlisted in 1970, told a Fox News radio show. It was the latest in the public firestorm over the comments by Gregory Salcido, who was recorded by one his students and subsequently put on administrative leave this week by his school district in Pico Rivera, Calif.
Kelly’s reaction was much more pointed than a comment from the Pentagon earlier this week. Amber Smith, the Pentagon’s director of outreach, said she found the comments “uninformed,” but that they presented an opportunity to reach out and help him understand what the military does.
OIR DEATH: A release from Combined Joint Task Force - Operation Inherent Resolve says a coalition service member died yesterday from what is described as “a non-combat-related incident.” No other information about the circumstances surrounding the death, or the nationality of the service member, have been released pending notification of next of kin.
MOVING ON: Lauren Katzenberg, co-founder and managing editor of Task & Purpose, has been snatched up by the New York Times to be editor of “At War,” the Times soon-to-be-relaunched channel covering conflict and its aftermath, according to Jake Silverstein, editor in chief of The New York Times Magazine. In a tweet, Katzenberg says, “It is with many tears and a heavy heart that I am saying goodbye to my colleagues and contributors at @TaskandPurpose. Building this place has been the most rewarding experience of my life, but I leave it in very good hands. I couldn’t ask for a better team.”
SUPER BOWL SUPERFANS: Today’s burning question: “Which team's victory would be better for national security? The Eagles or the Patriots?” Two self-described superfans, Military Times’ Leo Shane and Defense News’ Aaron Mehta face off to debate the weighty issue facing the nation. Watch here.
THE RUNDOWN
Wall Street Journal: Russia Returns to U.S.'s Backyard
Air Force Times: Air Force suspends solo T-6 trainer flights over hypoxia fears
USA Today: Ex-Gitmo detainee weighs in on Trump executive order to keep facility open
CNN: North Korea to parade dozens of long-range missiles before Winter Olympics
Reuters: North Korea hits back at U.S., calls Trump administration 'racist'
War on the Rocks: Grand Strategy from Obama to Trump
AP: GOP congressman who led the Benghazi probe will leave House
Task & Purpose: Troops Were The Accessory Of The Night As Politicians Tried To Out-America Each Other
UPI: Lockheed Martin flight tests new short-range missile
New York Times: North Korean Defector, Honored by Trump, Has a Remarkable Escape Story
Defense News: Boeing still hammering out a deal with Embraer on potential tie-up
Defense News: Former SecDef Hagel: North Korea bloody nose strike a ‘gamble’ he wouldn’t make
Defense One: Security at the Winter Olympics Includes Drones That Catch Drones
Stars and Stripes: Angelina Jolie calls on NATO troops to confront sexual abuse
Navy Times: Veterans group creates PSA to follow rejected Super Bowl ad
Calendar
THURSDAY | FEB. 1
9 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Strategic Significance of the South China Sea: American, Asian, and International Perspectives with retired Adm. Gary Roughead, former chief of naval operations. hudson.org
9 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Changing dynamics in the Gulf: A conversation with Qatari Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. aei.org
10 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The Direction of Russian Politics and the Putin Factor. atlanticcouncil.org
11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave NE. The Navy the Nation Needs with Adm. John Richardson, the chief of naval operations. heritage.org
MONDAY | FEB. 5
8 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Taking Stock of Mexico's Security Landscape. wilsoncenter.org
10 a.m. 2121 Eye St. NW. Rep. Michael McCaul delivers the “State of National Security Address” at the George Washington University Center for Cyber and Homeland Security. homeland.house.gov
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Enhanced Deterrence in the North: A 21st Century European Engagement Strategy with retired Gen. Philip Breedlove, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, and retired Adm. Mark Ferguson.
2 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW. The Demise of America’s First Missile Defense System and the Rise of Strategic Arms Limitation. carnegieendowment.org
TUESDAY | FEB. 6
9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Russia’s Cyber Operations in Ukraine and Beyond with Rep. Will Hurd. atlanticcouncil.org
9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Russia’s Post-Authoritarian Future: A Conversation with Ksenia Sobchak. csis.org
10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. U.S. Cyber Diplomacy in an Era of Growing Threats. foreignaffairs.house.gov
10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Gen. Paul Selva, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, testify on the National Defense Strategy and the Nuclear Posture Review. armedservices.house.gov
10 a.m. Dirksen 419. The Administration's South Asia Strategy on Afghanistan with John Sullivan, deputy secretary of state. foreign.senate.gov
10 a.m. House Visitor Center 210. Ensuring Effective and Reliable Alerts and Warnings. homeland.house.gov
2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. Subcommittee Hearing on Syria: Which Way Forward? foreignaffairs.house.gov
2 p.m. Rayburn 2200. Subcommittee Hearing on U.S.-Pakistan Relations: Reassessing Priorities Amid Continued Challenges. foreignaffairs.house.gov
2:30 p.m. Dirksen 562. Subcommittee Hearing on Terrible, No Good, Very Bad Ways of Funding Government: Exploring the Cost to Taxpayers of Spending Uncertainty caused by Governing through Continuing Resolutions, Giant Omnibus Spending Bills, and Shutdown Crises. hsgac.senate.gov
WEDNESDAY | FEB. 7
9 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Subcommittee on Senior Leader Misconduct: Prevention and Accountability with the vice chiefs of the Army, Navy and Air Force, as well as the assistant commandant of the Marine Corps. armedservices.house.gov
10 a.m. 1957 E St. NW. International Cybersecurity Leaders Forum: The U.S.-Ukraine Cybersecurity Partnership with Rep. Brendan Boyle. gwu.edu
12:15 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. How to Interpret Nuclear Crises: From Kargil to North Korea. stimson.org
3:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Rise and Fall of the ABM Treaty: Missile Defense and the U.S.-Russia Relationship. csis.org
3:30 p.m. Russell 222. Subcommittee hearing on Army Modernization. armed-services.senate.gov
THURSDAY | FEB. 8
7 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. S&ET Executive Breakfast. ndia.org
1:30 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Next steps for the Army: A conversation with Under Secretary Ryan McCarthy. brookings.edu
4:30 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Cyber Mercenaries: States and Hackers. carnegieendownment.org
