New Hampshire’s First District House seat, which has flipped blue and red like a ping-pong ball for a decade, is the hottest race in the state this year. No less than seven Democrats and four Republicans will compete in the Sept. 16 primary.

Unless the president’s approval ratings change, it appears inevitable that the House will turn Democratic this cycle – the only guessing game is whether it will be 25 or 35 seats. We are a key swing district.

Two candidates are making appearances these days at house parties on the Seacoast – Chris Pappas, executive councilor from Manchester, and Maura Sullivan, an ex-Marine who moved across the Massachusetts line last year to launch her campaign. State Rep. Mindi Messmer of Rye is also a high-profile candidate on the Seacoast.

Pappas, 37, is co-owner with his family of the Puritan Back Room restaurant in Manchester and has deep roots in that community. I like his story: working long hours in a family business and meeting a payroll, and working his way up in state government as state representative and county treasurer. He has the blessing of party leadership, and he’s angling to be the mainstream candidate. At a recent appearance, he deftly handled questions on national and foreign policy, Planned Parenthood, education funding and infrastructure. He has one big thing going for him: he’s proven he can win in his council district which has voted Republican, and went overwhelmingly for Trump. A Democrat who can win big in Manchester to offset the surrounding red towns like Derry and Londonderry has near Talismanic properties to state Democrats. Pappas is working hard to add the Seacoast and North Country to that base.

Maura Sullivan rose to captain in the Marines, serving in Asia and Iraq. After a spell in private industry, she was an Obama appointee high in the Veterans Administration. She stunned the state recently by announcing she had already raised $430,000. She is impressive on the stump but hardly a local candidate. She plays her national experience instead. Asked where she got the money, one insider told me she is benefiting from a veteran’s network, as well as her networks from Washington and Harvard. “Those are people who could write five figure checks,” he said. Eighty percent of her donors are from out of state, the Pappas camp says.

Messmer is a Bernie Sanders supporter fighting for economic justice, universal health care and gender equality. Trained as a scientist, she went into politics to fight a visible, measurable menace in our back yard – the Coakley landfill and other groundwater pollution – and she’s tenacious. Organizers tried to keep her from speaking at the recent Portsmouth women’s rally – a veritable gift on social media to an activist. She is the candidate the others fear, because her campaign could ignite. But our district also suffered due to Carol Shea-Porter’s more extreme left positions, enabling a weak Republican like Frank Guinta to beat her in GOP cycles.

Other Democratic contenders each have their base of support: Lincoln Soldati was Strafford County Attorney and commands many loyalties; Declan McEachern is the scion of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Paul McEachern and a rising tech entrepreneur. There’s also Rochester city attorney Terence O’Rourke and former AFL-CIO labor leader Mark McKenzie.

But the two early starters with serious backing are Pappas and Sullivan. In my conversations with Democrats, I find men supporting Pappas, but women holding off until they learn more. Women may hold the key to this U.S. House cycle. In 2016, Maggie Hassan won a 44 percent-43 percent victory over Kelly Ayotte by gaining 60 percent of college educated women to Ayotte’s 37 percent, and 53 percent of women independents versus Ayotte’s 41 percent, leaving Ayotte without enough conservative men to win.

Women are the force in the Democratic party, and they know it, and they are mobilized for 2018 like never before – running candidates for office in record numbers. Ask yourself “what keeps Republicans up at night?” Answer: Fear of losing soccer moms that voted red in 2016.

Who will tap into this energy in the early going? Will Pappas be their champion, appealing to the sane and pragmatic middle? Or Messmer, the fighter? Or a well-financed ex-Marine whose recon says our state is a target rich environment?

John Tabor of Portsmouth is Seacoast Media Group's former president and publisher.