Based on the numbers from December, the local economy seems to mostly mirror the gains that have been reported for the national economy.
All sectors continue to report positive results in at least one area. Our retail sales and employment sectors report across the board gains during December.
Although the number of building permits issued for new home construction during
December is lower compared to December 2016, the year-over-year number of permits is up by just over 22 percent.
This suggests that potentially the local home construction numbers have finally begun returning to a point of sustained improvement.
While the estimated value of construction for which permits have been issued have been heavily influenced by the unusually large number of permits issued during 2016, we have still experienced a significant level of planned construction during 2017.
Despite the fact that the local real estate market has experienced some ups and downs during 2017, we continue to experience improvement in the average sales price for homes.
In the year-over-year comparison, the average price for closed sales during 2017 is higher by 1.7 percent. Even though the month-to-month comparison for December shows a decline in the average closing price of 11.4 percent, activity for the year is still positive.
The number of closed sales is 4.9 percent higher in the month-to-month comparison and nominally the same in the year-over-year comparison.
Energy price averages were mixed during December, with oil prices rising by 11.4
percent and natural gas prices declining by 6.6 percent.
The North Texas count of active rigs working in our area is the same as last December and continues at minimal activity levels. This sector in our area continues to experience challenges related to production and exploration that have persisted for several years.
The retail and tax receipts during 2017 have been nominally stable with some slight improvement.
During December, estimated retail sales grew by 2.5 percent compared to December 2016 and year-over-year retail sales are estimated to be nominally higher by 0.4 percent.
In the month-to-month comparison, tax receipts are higher by 5.9 percent. The year-over-year comparison shows a nominal growth of 0.4 percent.
Improvements in the employment sector are among the more impressive economic statistics during 2017. The reports show job growth of 1.6 percent during the year, which translates into 900 new jobs added locally.
In addition, the local unemployment rate is estimated to be 3.2 percent, or one percent lower than the unemployment rate reported for the end of 2016. This improvement is likely influencing the improved level of new home construction plans as well as some of the retail sales increase.
Overall, 2017 appears to have been a relatively stable year economically with a few challenges and many improvements reported.
Although December was economically favorable, the monthly improvements are not sufficient to raise the Wichita Falls Economic Index level, which remains unchanged from the November level at 106.8.
A conclusion, however, is that we begin 2018 at an optimistic pace with expectations of maintaining it throughout the year.
Can you do your part by participating in the optimism?
James R. Owen, Ph.D., is assistant professor of economics, director, Mamie Raborn Center for Economic Education, Dillard College of Business Administration, Midwestern State University.