There is politics. And then there is reality.
The politics comes from people like our new governor and many of his fellow Democrats.
The reality comes from people like Moody's, the financial rating firm.
A good example of the difference between politics and reality comes from examining two bills that will be heard in legislative committees today (Thursday).
One would require that every school district in the state implement full-day kindergarten.
A second would lift the $175,000 cap that former Gov. Chris Christie imposed on school superintendents' salaries.
Gov. Phil Murphy has proposed lots of other spending increases, such as tuition-free community colleges, an expansion of preschool and a big increase in state aid to K-12 education.
Whatever you think about the merits of these proposals, you have to admit they cost money. And money is in short supply in Trenton these days..
On Monday, the financial-rating firm Moody's issued a report on New Jersey's economic outlook. The report cited a "revenue gap" in the state budget of 2.3 percent. This represents the gap between revenues projected in the budget and actual revenues collected.
They're supposed to match up by the end of the current fiscal year, which runs till June 30. But revenues "are unlikely to improve over the next six months of the fiscal year," the report stated
The biggest shortfall is projected to be sales-tax collections. That's because Republican former Gov. Chris Christie left a time bomb in the budget for his Democratic successor.
The sales-tax rate was 7 percent when he took office but Christie pushed through a bill that reduced it to 6.625 percent as of Jan. 1.
That may not seem like a big cut, but it will cost the state $400 million in revenue this year, and $500 million in the following year, Moody's said.
That's not the only time bomb that could blow up the budget. President Trump planted an even bigger bomb when he pushed through his tax-reform plan, which also took effect Jan. 1.
"The state's capacity to raise revenue to offset these shortfalls has diminished with the recent federal tax reform," the report said.
Murphy's hopes of enacting a new "millionaire's tax" are coming up against the reality that the new tax would no longer be deductible against the federal income tax.
Before tax reform, Senate President Steve Sweeney was backing the millionaire's tax. But now he's backing off.
But the biggest effect of the Trump tax reform will be on the housing market in New Jersey, the Moody's report said.
"New Jersey home values are likely to decline 7.5 percent on average as a result of the federal tax reform," said Moody's.
The reason our home values will drop is that we have the highest property taxes in the nation. Till this year, you could write off your entire property-tax bill against your income level for federal income tax. Now the deduction is capped at $10,000 a year.
Imagine you're trying to sell a house in a North Jersey suburb with a $47,000 property-tax tax bill. I talked with a guy who may soon find himself in that position.
This guy, who didn't want his name used, works on Wall Street and lives in Essex County. He's happy where he is. But his boss is looking at moving the operation to Florida, which has no income tax.
"He just took some office space in Miami," the guy said. "It wouldn't be that big a stretch for me to move there."
The days when a Wall Street worker had to be physically on Wall Street are long gone, he said.
"I can work from a beach in Thailand, from the Caribbean. I can do it from Miami," he said. "All I need is an internet connection."
If the boss decides to make the move, he said, "I don't know how I can sell my house, because who would buy it?"
Someone will eventually, but at a lower price. If Moody's is correct about that drop in home values, it will start taking effect during Murphy's first year.
And there's one more time bomb for Murphy. As he was leaving office, Christie decided to reduce the expected return on investment for the state's pension funds from 7.65 to 7 percent.
Fiscally, that was a sound move. However it blew another $235 million hole in the budget that Murphy must put together over the coming months.
None of this is the new governor's fault. But it is his problem.
I can't see how he can solve it while adding even more expensive services.
But it should be fun to watch.
ADD: As bad as that Moody's analysis is, it may be overoptimistic according to economist Bill Bergman of the fiscal watchdog group Truth in Accounting.
New Jersey in the worst financial shape in the nation by far when it comes to debt burden per taxpayer, Bergman said.
"If every income-tax payer in New Jersey wrote the government a check for $67,200 then you'd be back to neutrality," said Bergman.
I imagine Murphy could afford that.
As for the rest of us, there's always Florida.