Dynamic shift: Bradley's exit to NBA changed everything for the 2017-18 Tar Heels

By Turner Walston

It’s not the end of the world. I know that. But Monday’s game was a cold dose of reality for Carolina men’s basketball after the team appeared to find its groove with the small lineup.

The 2017-18 North Carolina Tar Heels are not the 2016-17 team. As much fun as the ‘defending national champions’ label is to wear, this is a different group. This is ‘Saved By The Bell: The New Class.’

There are some audience favorites still around, but we’re going to have to get to know a new core group.

We knew Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks would graduate, but Tony Bradley’s early NBA entry changed the dynamic of the team that would return. The should-be sophomore would be anchoring the post for the Tar Heels, bringing back a year’s experience from the grind of the ACC regular season and those three important weekends in March and April. He’d be in the post with Luke Maye, at 6’10 a skyscraper on defense, bothering shots at the rim, grabbing rebounds and beginning the Tar Heel break.

Bradley’s presence would have enabled Maye to continue to do Luke Maye things; the junior prefers to play facing the basket, and Bradley in the paint would allow Maye to flourish even more than he has. And Bradley in practice would be huge for the development of young bigs Sterling Manley and Garrison Brooks.

All that is not to say that Carolina would be undefeated if Tony Bradley were on the roster —and certainly not to question Bradley making the best decision for himself in entering the NBA Draft— but simply to state that with one more proven post player on the roster (making for a total of two), the entire dynamic of this Tar Heel team would be different.

But indeed Tony Bradley’s not here, and Carolina’s starting lineup for the past five games has included two players listed at 6’8, Maye and Cameron Johnson; Pinson at 6’6, Kenny Williams at 6’4 and Joel Berry at 6’0.

Roy Williams wants to play inside-out, to have competent and confident big men force the defense to pay attention, to then open up driving lanes and perimeter shots. But with Maye the only post player starting (and he’s a stretch-four), Williams has had to improvise.

To some degree, the Tar Heels have been able to cover up their deficiencies by overwhelming the boards with sheer numbers, and it has worked. The Tar Heels lead the nation in rebounds per game. When you don’t have the height, you better have the fight, and seven Tar Heels average at least three boards per outing. Johnson and Pinson are excellent rebounding wings, but when you send perimeter-oriented players to crash the defensive glass because you don’t have big men to secure the ball, you lose a potential run-out opportunity. With an additional player crashing the boards, that’s fewer numbers going the other way with the ball.

Williams wants his team to run, and they’ve done that to great success throughout his career. But scoring opportunities that come in transition have to be sparked - either by the defense forcing turnovers, contesting shots and getting rebounds, or getting the ball out of the basket quickly.

Through 21 games, the Tar Heels are forcing opponents to commit 12.3 turnovers per game. Not a bad number, but that numbers was 15.5 at this point a year ago. That’s three opportunities per game that could be six to nine points’ difference. And the nation’s best rebounding this year was three better per game at this time last January.

What we’re left with is Roy Williams trying to put the best lineups on the court that he can, with the roster that he has. By almost any standard, they’ve done a great job; there are many, many teams that would love to be 15-6 with the quality wins that Carolina has under its belt.

But Virginia Tech exposed the Tar Heels, goading them into settling for three-point shots rather than attacking the rim and getting the foul line, and getting 16 points from 6’10 Kerry Blackshear, Jr., a player who had no counterpart in blue.

They’ll have to develop post depth and confidence, and suffer some growing pains along the way. Sterling Manley and Garrison Brooks have to get big-time reps against big-time opponents, even if that means taking some lumps. I for one would like to see Manley start, to get his game legs underneath him early, to get some confidence and to set a tone down low, allowing a wing player to stay on the wing.

And Kenny Williams, who has seen his shot break of late, probably ought to come off the bench. We all remember ‘second half Paige,’ when Marcus Paige would come alive after a slow start. ‘First half Kenny’ has been great. Second half? Not so much. Maybe spreading those first shots over a longer period would do him good.

No, it’s not the end of the world that Carolina lost. What would be ‘the end of the world’ in that metaphor? Accepting that the Heels probably won’t win the national championship?

Well, they probably won’t, but WRALSportsFan didn’t contract me to have that perspective. So let’s say this: despite the recent success of the small lineup, Monday night’s game proved that the Tar Heels still have a long way to go to be a complete team that can compete for a deep run in March.

Turner Walston is the editor of the Argyle Report, which covers UNC athletics. Follow Turner on Twitter here.