The Madras High Court will soon decide the fate of the Edappadi Palaniswami-led AIADMK Government. The division Bench of the court which includes Chief Justice Indira Banrejee and Justice M Sundar on Tuesday completed the process of hearing the 18 disqualified AIADMK MLAs who had approached the court with a plea to squash the order issued by P Dhanapal, the Speaker of the Legislative Assembly disqualifying them from the House.
The 18 MLAs owing allegiance to the jailed VK Sasikala and her nephew TTV Dinakaran, had submitted a memorandum to the then Governor C Vidhyasagar Rao in August 2017 informing him that they have lost trust in the Chief Minister and hence was withdrawing support to him. The then Governor had forwarded the petition to the Speaker who in consultation with the chief whip had issued an order disqualifying the MLAs under the ambit of the Anti-Defection Law. The legislature secretary issued an order declaring the 18 constituencies represented by the MLAs vacant.
This resulted in the MLAs approaching the court, which restrained the Election Commission of India from going ahead with the bypoll in the constituencies till further orders. The final verdict by the Madras High Court is crucial for the Edappadi Palaniswami Government since according to the order issued by the Election Commission of India, the Government has only 111 members in the 234 member House.
The Government needs 118 MLAs to claim simple majority in the House. If the High Court quashes the order of the Speaker, it is almost certain that the Palaniswami Government would fall. This is because of the possibility of the newly elected TTV Dhinakaran acting as a rallying for the disgruntled MLAs and it would also see many MLAs making a beeline to his camp.
If the court upholds the Speaker’s order, it would lead to by-election from 18 the constituencies which would make the Government another sitting duck.