School District 2 enrollment is expected to barely grow in the next decade, but elementary schools will see a slight decrease, according to updated enrollment projections.
The companies that prepared both the update and original report, Cropper GIS and Mckibben Demographics, first created enrollment projections for SD2 in 2012.
“You’re actually at the elementary level hitting kind of a plateau,” said demographer Jerome McKibben.
The flip side is that high schools are expected to see an increase in enrollment.
This update shaves down K-12 expectations for growth by the 2027-28 school year by about 200 students compared to the original report, but is still about 400 students more than are currently enrolled.
Projections come with a whole shaker of salt. Birth rates, trends for people moving in and out of the area, home values, and the strength of the local economy must remain stable. And they assume that Lockwood won’t vote to expand from a K-8 to K-12 school district, which will likely be on the May ballot.
The report predicts significant school-to-school variability. For example, Central Heights Elementary’s enrollment would drop 17 percent using current school boundaries; Arrowhead Elementary’s enrollment would increase 15 percent.
Overall, elementary enrollment is expected to drop 1.8 percent; middle school is expected to increase 2.7 percent; high school is expected to increase 8.3 percent.
Part of the high school increase is driven by expected growth in K-8 districts, like Elder Grove, whose students attend SD2 high schools.
The report has been a major driver of district policy in the past; the original version played a starring role in the 2012 bond campaign that funded two new middle schools and districtwide elementary renovations.
But K-8 enrollment fell well short of initial projections, and McKibben revised the projections to reflect current enrollment.
“The wave of kids is actually still there, they’re just not in your schools,” McKibben told trustees in 2014.
Instead, they headed to outlying districts. Both Laurel and Elder Grove have experienced explosive enrollment growth, and projections commissioned by those districts expect the trend to continue.
District officials are eyeing high school facilities plans. While a new high school is likely off the table, a push for renovations — especially at the Career Center — seems likely.
Enrollment at Skyview and West High is expected to grow by about 300 students over the next decade. Senior High’s enrollment is expected to shrink by about 150 students.
“You have a wave aging in, and your feeder districts have a wave aging in as well,” McKibben said. “That’s the line I have the most confidence in.”
He also addressed recent facilities growth from the 2012 bond.
“You have barely caught up,” he said, citing 90 percent of capacity as an ideal operating figure.
SD2’s state accreditation was threatened by overcrowded classrooms before the bond.
“Actually I think it’s kind of a gift that enrollment’s not going up at a steep rate,” said SD2 superintendent Terry Bouck.
McKibben highlighted high school growth as the most pressing issue, suggesting that high school boundaries should be redrawn in the next decade based on the uneven growth between high schools.
“The bigger problem is, ‘do you have space for 500 more kids in the high schools?’” McKibben said.
