Victor Robles is the Nationals’ top prospect, ranked No. 5 overall by Baseball America. (John McDonnell/The Washington Post)
Baseball America released its annual preseason top 100 prospects list Monday morning, and the Washington Nationals’ presence is immediate but limited.
The publication ranked Victor Robles, the electric 20-year-old center fielder, No. 5. Slugging 18-year-old outfielder Juan Soto is No. 56. The two Dominicans were the only Nationals minor leaguers on the list.
A reminder before we go any further: Prospect lists are subjective and far from perfect. One of my favorite pastimes is reading through past lists in bewilderment. But it’s embedded in the industry, with several versions from different outlets popping up every year.
Each publication formulates a unique, though often similar, account, while clubs have internal takes on the top minor leaguers. But these lists provide useful snapshots. They are glimpses as to which players are considered the game’s future stars — or who should at least eventually populate major league rosters.
With that in mind, one of the primary reasons the Nationals have been able to sustain success since their breakthrough 2012 season is they’ve kept their farm system stocked with top talent while constructing elite rosters at the major league level. It is a juggling act few organizations execute for any considerable stretch of time. General Manager Mike Rizzo’s front office has pulled it off, consistently acquiring and developing talent to replenish the major league roster — either through trade or with the prospects themselves — to remain contenders (a couple slip-ups aside).
Robles and Soto represent the next wave. Robles became the youngest player to play a game in the majors in 2017 when he was promoted from Class AA Harrisburg in mid-September. He looked comfortable from the jump, flashing his five-tool skill set in the batter’s box, on the base paths and in the outfield. All he needed was 13 games to convince the club he was worthy of a spot on the postseason roster. He is expected to begin the 2018 season with Class AAA Syracuse but will return to Washington at some point.
Soto isn’t as complete of a player, but Nationals officials rave about his hitting ability. They say his approach resembles that of a seasoned veteran and envision all-star productivity. Soto, however, hasn’t played much since signing for $1.5 million in 2016; an ankle injury and hamate surgery marred his 2017 campaign. He appeared in just 32 games between the Gulf Coast League Nationals and Class A Hagerstown. But he mashed when healthy, batting .350 with a .919 on-base-plus-slugging percentage in 123 plate appearances.
In Robles and Soto, the Nationals have two potential all-stars manning their future outfield and insurance in case Bryce Harper departs next winter. Adding in Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon, the Nationals could have one of the better position-player cores in baseball, even if Harper leaves.
But what about the pitching? It has been 13 months since the Nationals flipped Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning to the Chicago White Sox for Adam Eaton. The move was aggressive. It slashed Washington’s pitching depth, leaving Erick Fedde as the only Nationals minor league pitcher on Baseball America’s top 100 list last January. Fedde was listed at No. 52. This year — after making his major league debut in 2017 — Fedde isn’t on the list. It’s the first time the Nationals don’t have a pitcher on Baseball America’s top 100 since 2012; Giolito had appeared on the preseason list for them from 2013 through 2016, when he was ranked No. 5.
Again, these lists have blunders every year. Fedde’s absence doesn’t mean he won’t develop into a solid or even front-of-the-rotation starter. Further, 2017 was a strange season for him. He was moved back and forth between starting and relieving in the minors, and he wasn’t 100 percent when he made his final start in late August before Washington shut him down. Perhaps the big league experience and sticking as a starter will help him immensely in 2018.
Still, the Nationals acknowledged their depth shortage by stockpiling pitchers in June’s draft, but those reinforcements won’t arrive immediately. Perhaps left-hander Seth Romero, Washington’s first-round pick, will skyrocket through the system and land in the majors sometime in 2018, but that isn’t guaranteed. As a result, Fedde and A.J. Cole, himself a former top-100 prospect who lost that luster before finishing 2017 on a high note, will compete for the No. 5 spot in the rotation in spring training — unless Washington acquires an established arm before the season starts, which is always possible.
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